The sales of fidelis and treasure securities, with the high interests offered, over the market, and especially with the change in Fidelis from quarterly sales to monthly sales, begin to affect the stock market, the real estate market and not least the banking market. 1. The stock market -The high interest rates offered by the Ministry of Finance, fixed and with long maturity (7.8%/7.5%/6.8%in lei and 3.75%/6.25%for euros), are above the dividends that could now be obtained on the stock exchange, at least for large shares (5%-7%). Not to mention that the interest rates from Fidelis and treasure are not taxed, while the dividends are taxed twice – the dividend tax and the inclusion in the CASS ceiling. Some of the Romanians invest in large companies from the stock exchange first for dividends and second for a possible increase in the value of shares. Here, the investors can even wake up with a decrease in the value of the shares. As Adrian Tanase, CEO of the BVB, also notes, in a discussion at the ZF today's opening, so long when the state securities are exempt from taxes, the coupons paid by the corporations, ie the interest to bonds, should benefit from the same fiscal treatment, to be the same market. Market brokers say that the big interest paid by the Ministry of Finance at Fidelis and Treasure affect the investments in stock exchange shares and the demand for new actions and bonds. The Ministry of Finance sets a profit in the market, and everyone who wants to get money from investors must offer much higher earnings, over 10-12% for lei and even over 8% for euros. There are not many companies that could pay this cost, and those that would pay have an extremely high risk. Companies that would like to sell shares to the retail market should provide great discounts to convince investors to invest in corporate actions/bonds, but that also means the company's shareholders of a much smaller evaluation of the company, which not many shareholders are willing to accept. 2. The real estate market – The big interests offered by the Ministry of Finance, exempt from tax, begin to attract money from Romanian investors, who may have had on the list rather to invest the money in the purchase of apartments to give them later. Already on the real estate market there is a decrease in transactions, especially on the area of investments in apartments. As he said at ZF Live Gabi Arteni, first vice-president APAIR-Professional Association of Real Estate Agents, at this moment the returns obtained from the rents, if the taxes/taxes are taken into account, they do not have to compete with the interests offered by the Ministry of Finance, 7.9% for lei/6.25% to a contract, as not Rent – Monday in which an apartment is free, renovation work and furniture. When the interest rates for the state securities were 2-3%, this before 2022, it was more profitable to buy an apartment, which was even cheaper than today, and win from rent. Overall, you could earn 4-6%. At current rents and current apartments prices you can not compete with interest on government securities, especially since the real estate market is ilichid, ie the sale of an apartment at the required price does not happen the next day. At the state securities the sale can be made from one day to another.
3. The banking market – The banks began to feel the pressure of the state securities and fidelis both at the level of the large interests offered by the Ministry of Finance, especially now, from the beginning of this year, when the Ministry of Finance has changed the maturity of Fidelis from quarter to the Moon. Banks offer interest on warehouses under fidelis/treasure. If they offer higher interest interest, interest on loans should be much higher, ie over 10% -12% for lei and over 8% per euro. Banks can also juggle low interest on current accounts, which makes the average of the resources attracted to be lower, but also the interest on loans that are now in the market – over 8% for lei and over 6% for euros – are considered high by companies. In the last two/three years, the Ministry of Finance has attracted over 45 billion lei through fidelis and treasure, resources that have not affected banks, but which begin to affect from now on, in the sense that the growth rate of deposits is diminished and even some banks may even register a decrease in the population. The Ministry of Finance needs great money, it is the main buyer of lei and euros on the market and under these conditions establishes the level of interest as a landmark. Banks attract resources from the population, which they place in government securities. But on the other side, the big interest rates make the bank financing difficult by companies. What business do you have to pay interest at 8-10% lei in these extremely troubled times? The Ministry of Finance has this year a financing requirement of 213 billion lei, both in lei and in foreign currency, and the amounts that cannot be obtained from the foreign market must be obtained from the domestic market, from banks, Pillar II pension funds, which have reached the top of the largest buyers of government securities, funds and insurance funds. When the seven pillar II funds, which have to buy monthly securities, receive interest of over 7%, with zero risk, why would they invest in companies bonds, which even if they have higher interests? When the Ministry of Finance pays interest of 7%, why invest in stock exchange shares, where dividends are lower, and the risk is higher? This year's interest rates will not decrease so easily given that inflation is still up-5%, the situation with the presidential elections has not been clarified, the government is not so solid and it has to take fiscal measures to fit into a budget deficit of 7%, so that we will not talk to us that the agencies are in the rating, «Junk», not reserved for investments.
For other news, analyzes, articles and information from real -time business follows the financial newspaper on WhatsApp Channels