After a promising cooling in 2023, the price of apartments began to rise again last year and the dynamics of bid prices in 1Q25 according to the CZSO accelerated to 15.7% year -on -year. A similar value (15.0%) indicated in advance data from realitymix, and the same applies to April. This development is surprising in view of the high interest rates that make real estate a relatively disadvantageous investment: the annual rent yield today is so low (3.7%) that it does not cover even the 10y government bond (4.0%), not counting negatives such as annual wear level, low liquidity and various risks. Long -term sustainable rise in apartment prices (about 4% per year). Moreover, the theoretical installment of the mortgage to the average wage is now above the value before the 2008 crisis, albeit below the peak of 2022. Despite all this, demand for flats is growing. The number of new mortgages for the purchase of real estate in March added 45.7% year -on -year. Although the number 2021 is still 19.2% lower against the mortgage fever of 2021, the number is 5.4% higher compared to 2020. Among the reasons for strong demands for apartments include the preference of Czechs to live «at all costs» in our own, deferred demand, especially from 2023, when the mortgages were 6%, high savings from households from the time of pandemic and speculation to continued growth in apartment prices. In the long term, the Housing Fund is also an increase in the number of single-member households, which were added between 2011-2021, 458,000 (32%), while other households only slightly decreased, and the number of uninhabited apartments (also 32% to 860 thousand and their share increased from 13.7% to 16.1%). The inconvenience of the bid parties due to long permitting processes and lack of work forces to the resulting curse certainly contributes to a significant extent. But it cannot be said that it would not be built. Some may be worried about the record low number of building permits issued for the entire history of measurement since 2002, but this is distorted by a decline in interest in building family houses and higher interests in flats: the number of apartments in family houses falling per apartment in apartment buildings. On the other hand, the value of building permits cleaned for price growth is near historical maximum. However, what could temporarily strangle the bid side last year's decline in completed apartments. However, this deficit could soon be caught up with the growing number of buildings, which could relieve the market a little. However, any prediction about further prices development is difficult. Jiří Pour, Ekonom, UniCredit Bank
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