Ekonom Scott Sumner on his blog PE, e biden over -stimulated the economy and created an altitude inflation. And Trump's trade wolf folds the economy differently. D, however, oek that the central bank in the current cycle reaches a smooth piston whole. According to the economist, this would even be the case for the first time in history. How did the fed dreamed of inflation, nor would it start a recession? Sumner mentions the main factors: the fed has kept the wage inflation to surely under control. NRST immigration was a positive eye on the side of the economy. And the rst of the nominated GDP was gradually decreasing. What does it mean? The economist PE, EV in 2007 and again in 2019 RST wages ranged from 3.0 % and 3.5 %, which is normally for the economy with fully reversing and 2 % clove inflation prices. However, an altitude stimulan from 2021 and 2022 led to the peak of inflation wages in VI 6.0 %. It was achieved in mid -2022. This is the inflation that the Fed had to sneak at PIBLIN 3.0 % and 3.5 % of the gradual slow -down pace of the nominated GDP. And I can get it. The nominally inflation wage over the last 12 MSC is a tle of 3.8 % of what is a bit too much. But in the last 6 MSC it is only 3.3 %, for the last 3 msce 2.6 %and for the last MSC 2.0 %. U are almost there, Mn Sumner. And continues: Fed ml so in many respects tst. The ten -year relative nzk inflation means that the young people forgot to the 70. NRST price halls in 2021 and 2023 was at least a galloping man. Therefore, wage inflation did not grow as rash as an inflation price or RST nominally GDP. Dalm by the factor of the bag was a nrt of immigration, which provided so much needed employment sun, when the economy fell as a result of altogether. Thus, the limited rusties of nominated wages of immigration thus made it easier for the snow, nor would it cause a recession. Fed ml tst with immigration, but thus destroyed the st its chapter in the forms of Dvra, what PT could be tied to. The Fed was doing a good good in the gradual slowdown of the nominated GDP. Together, tst and skills. To the Souasnmý dn in the field of VLDN politics, Sumner PE: In the case of the established cell, the markets were that Trump's policy was in a misconception. But there is a villa that Trump's Put option. Then for a while, Mr. Pan! Mon it Trump Mind VN! Now, again, the mind that Trump's business policy is wrong, but there is a Trump Put option. Thus, the President is somewhat retrieved, Mon nkam to 10% clm. In addition, the economist adds that this coarse look is of course temporary and for me to look stupid. If it is really full of smooth pistant, it will not be so exceptional according to the summers in the world context. Australia Zaila 29 years without recession and or Covida, this period would go. According to the economist, the periodic recession is not the most inevitable are nominated by nominated meshes, ie the Patna Mn's policy. Even the large recession in 2008 was evolved with a huge fall in the rust of the nominated GDP from the positives of 5 % to a surge 3 %. And the recession is not even Douc. Decisively, do not conduct a state where the economy is oiing from excesses. With a healthy mno policy, MON would be to maintain RST nominally GDP Blzko 4 %. I would have stable, even if the business wolf in 2025 plunged into the MRN recession. Trump's policy is the worst macroeconomic mistake of the President I am for the fork, and the pesto is not clear whether it would only be a blinking recession, close the economist: Blog Scott Sumner the Pursuit of Happiness