Last year, at this time, I think I wrote the most interesting article of the year – what will follow if the world of globalization will end? I started from Peter Zeihan's theory, one of the most popular American geopolitical analysts, who, in a book published in 2022-The End of the World is just the Beginning: Mapping the Collaps of Globalization-argued that the tip of the globalization model was reached in 2019. In 2020 the world started to change because of the seizures and the seizures that they have appeared. Western peace and bourgeoisie began to be over the head, and the model of prosperity brought by globalization began to be questioned. Starting from this and following the events of the last five years, and especially what is announced, the question I ask and ask the interlocutors is if Romania has reached the best level of economic growth and a certain level of prosperity, at least in the big cities and at least at the level of a certain socio-professional category. If you asked our parents and grandparents who were, after them, the best years, they would probably have said the 1970s. And this can be seen from the pictures and eyes they had then. In the 1970s, when Romania benefited from a certain opening, no one could have imagined that, in just a few years, a two-decade cycle could start everything: the 1980s and the 1990s. The standard of living reached in the 1970s by our parents, at least mine, did not find in the 1980s and 90s. After the 2000s, we benefited from a certain increase in the standard of living, a certain increase in income and, subsequently, the purchasing power by the fact that inflation decreased, and the Leo/Euro foreign exchange rate, which caused us to see things differently, in a more positive way. From 2009 to 2012 I had a crisis, but then there were 12 years of accelerated economic growth, increasing the purchasing power, by increasing wages and stability of the exchange rate, through the extremely low inflation. The year 2024 was the maximum point of reaching a certain level of living and purchasing power. From 2025, we face the increase of inflation-from 5% last year, we go to 9-10% this year-, with an increase in the Leo/Euro exchange rate-even if small, yet with a major impact in the minds of many Romanians-, with the significant slowing of the salary increases and even the freezing of any salary, as well as in the state. From August I entered a period of at least one year in which inflation will be greater than the nominal increase in the salary, which will lead to a real negative increase. Many would say that it is still good, because the salaries were not cut in nominal value. So, with a wage growth, even if under inflation, you can handle it. Because the economy has slowed visibly, every month we are with one foot in the recession area, private companies do not invest much, they do not look for people, they do not increase salaries. Each company looks in the organizational chart to see where he can cut. In the state sector will follow the restructuring of budgetary positions, some increases and benefits will decrease, certain income will be taxed, which, in the end, will mean a reduction in salary earnings and a decrease in purchasing power. If the private business took two steps back, the companies trying to protect themselves from the worsening, political and social times, the economy has lost its growth force, and the question that is being asked is if it has growth engines. Faced with its own problems, Germany is no longer an economic growth engine, neither for Europe nor for us. The IT sector, which has brought us an extra substantial economic growth in the last two decades, is on zero, has nothing to grow. The industry has dropped for five years now and we depend first of all on Germany. The constructions have slowed visibly. The consumption, which was the main growth engine, decreased significantly, from a growth rate of 9% per year to only 2% per year and may even mark a zero increase when VAT increase and excise increase will be seen in the price of products. The salaries, in addition to the fact that they no longer benefit from two -digit increases, stagnate, this in the best case, because some have even entered the minus. And against the background of increasing costs – the more expensive energy bill, the higher bank rate, the price of higher products and services, the cost of a higher good living – what remains is very little. In the last 25 years, since 2000, the economy of Romania has increased ten times due to foreign investments, due to European funds, due to NATO and EU entry, due to the growth of corporate class, due to retail, IT, banks, supermarkets and malls, in real estate developments. After 25 years, it is normal to have a resettlement, but the question is: who and what will draw the economy again? Because, from a political and social point of view, we are already drawn back. From a certain point of view, for a good part of you, among us, 2024 may have been the best year. We all agree that the tax measures will cut from the purchasing power, they will change certain things in the personal budget of each, there will be not so much available money for something else. The fiscal disaster is so great, the increase of the state's debt is so fast that the fiscal correction measures may be insufficient. No matter what will happen and what tax measures will be taken, all these things will eat from the purchasing power of each in the coming years.
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