In the last two months, the USD/JPY course has been in a relatively narrow zone of 145,70-149,10, reflecting the uncertainty of investors after a series of major central banks' decisions. In recent days, the dollar slightly weakened to the lower limit of this span, around 145.70. The decline was mainly due to the pigeon rhetoric of the chairman of Fed Jerom Powell, who more emphasized the weakness of the US labor market than the risks associated with inflation. In addition, the federal reserve system reduced the rates by 25 basis points, which shifted the Federal Fund's rate to 4.00-4.25 %. Markets now close the possibility of up to four other reductions up to the middle of 2026. On the other hand, the Bank of Japan remains cautious. The likelihood of raising rates is estimated only about 20 %, and the situation is complicated by political uncertainty after the resignation of Prime Minister Ishiba. This contrast between US and Japan's currency policy creates tension, but at the same time holds the course in a relatively stable zone. From a technical point of view, USD/JPY is in a long -term decreasing triangle with a strong support to 139.80. Momenta indicators remain neutral – MACD oscillates around zero line and RSI moves close to 50. On the growth side, a breakthrough above a 50 -week SMA to 148.40 and resistance to 149.10 will open space to 151.40 and subsequently to a long -term declining trend line in 152.50. On the contrary, a decline below 145.70 could lead to a 200 -week SMA test near 142.00 and a deeper weakening could aim to significantly support at 139.80, which appears to be a key point of turnover. The view of the 4th quarter of 2025 remains rather bearish. It is expected that USD/JPY could gradually weaken towards 139.80 by the end of the year, due to the continuing release of the Fed policy, weaker American Makrodat and the possible strengthening of the Japanese yen if the fight was intrigued by the hawk.
USDJPY.FXDAILY-25.9.2025 The author of the article: Line bin, external analyst, instaforex.eu Notification: This information is provided to non-professional and professional clients in marketing communication. They do not contain and should not be understood as investment counseling or investment recommendations, or the offer or call for involvement in any transaction or strategy with financial instruments. The previous performance is not a guarantee or forecast of future performance. Instant Trading EU Ltd. It does not take any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the information provided or any loss resulting from any investment based on analysis, prediction or other information. Any commercial decision is always only an independent and exclusive decision of the client. Risks warning: difference contracts are complex tools and, as a result of the use of the financial lever, are associated with the high risk of rapid financial loss. For 63 % of retail investors' accounts, there was a loss in trading with differential contracts with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how differential contracts work and whether you can afford a high risk of losing your funds.
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