Does anyone hear at Victoria Palace? The Romanian state can take advantage of the historical maximums on the stock market to get quickly 12-18 billion lei through additional sales of shares at Hidroelectrica, Romgaz, Nuclearelectrica, shows a CFA Romania analysis. «Appetite is. The opportunities are missing»

The Romanian state could attract between 12 and 18 billion lei by selling additional shares at companies such as Hidroelectrica (H2O), Romgaz (SNG) and Nuclearelectrica (SNN), without losing control over them, shows an analysis by CFA Romania, the Association of Investment Professionals. Such a strategy could be implemented quickly, either by accelerated private placements, or by secondary offers of sale of shares, and would involve the transfer of 5-10% of the share capital. Buyers exist, including among the Pillar II private pension funds, which manage assets of 30 billion euros and which, although they have appetite for investments, demand the lack of opportunities on the local market. In parallel, the state could obtain considerable amounts by the direct listing of unlisted companies, as provided in the National Plan of Redress and Resility. The examples are concrete. The state owns 80% of Hidroelectrica through the Ministry of Energy. A 10–15% sale would bring 5–8 billion lei to the budget, while the state would remain with over 65% and continue to benefit from the consistent dividends of the most profitable energy producer. In Romgaz, where the state controls 70%, a similar sale would bring 3-5 billion lei, maintaining a comfortable majority participation. In the case of nuclearelectrica, the reduction of the participation from 83% to 67-72% would generate revenues of 1.5–2 billion lei. Would the problem of lower dividends be raised in the future? Not really, say analysts. Because the state would compensate for attracting higher taxes from the stock exchange and by entering new investors in companies which would improve corporate governance and thus the investment policy. The benefits of listing are not only budgetary, but also structural. Hidroelectrica demonstrated this in 2023, through the largest IPO in the history of the Bucharest Stock Exchange, which attracted international investors and led to a record evaluation. After listing, companies tend to become more efficient, profit margins increase (from about 9% to over 14%, according to CFA Romania), and the dividends paid to shareholders multiply. The state received in 2024 about 8 billion lei from dividends, compared to only 2.5 billion lei in 2014 – an increase fueled by both the pressure for the distribution of profit and the better performance of the listed companies. The analysis also emphasizes that an increase in the free-flow (weight of the shares available at trading) to 25-30% for each large company would allow the inclusion in international indices such as MSCI or FTSE, thus attracting passive funds and foreign investments. Increased liquidity would generate additional income from taxes on profit, dividends and capital gains. «There was no political will. Because there, as we know, in the board of directors there are politically made appointments. There are extraordinary sources of income for the people put there and then it is very difficult to change these things. As it is as difficult to reduce the expenses from the public administration, local or central,» said Dragoş, a CFA Currently, the BET index is at historical maximums, which could be a favorable moment for selling minority participations. The state could thus combine two seemingly contradictory goals: obtaining quick budget income and keeping control over strategic companies, while also strengthening discipline and transparency in public assets.
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