Cyclicity dead? Since the creation of Bitcoin (BTC) at Satoshi Nakamoto in January 2009, cryptocurrency prices seemed to follow a 4 year cycleaccording to the tempo imposed by the phenomenon of halving. The latter halves the block reward to crypto-miners, which further reduces the issuance of new bitcoins. But is this 4-year BTC cycle going to happen this time? For the former boss of BitMEX, Arthur Hayesthis is the monetary policy of the great powers which would especially guide the increases of the king of cryptos.
The key points of this article:
Arthur Hayes claimed that Bitcoin's 4-year cycle, based on halving, would no longer be relevant. He argued that the monetary policies of the United States and China now influence Bitcoin's fluctuations.
The 4-year cycle on BTC prices: a relic of the past?
In an essay published this October 9, 2025, Arthur Hayesemblematic figure of the cryptosphere, declares that the 4 year cycle on the prices of Bitcoinbased on the halvingwould not plus pertinent. According to him, the rises and falls of Bitcoin are rather dictated by the monetary policy of the main economic powers, namely the UNITED STATES and the Chine. Historically, the bull runs (bullish phases) of Bitcoin have coincided with periods of quantitative easing (QE, or quantitative easing) in the United States and credit expansion in China. For example, Bitcoin's first bull run took place when the US Federal Reserve and the Chinese Central Bank were printing money. Conversely, the bear markets often began when these monetary policies have tightened (quantitative tightening, ou QT) .
“The gift that Satoshi [Nakamoto] given to Humanity via its whitepaper on Bitcoin is a technological miracle which was launched at a very important moment in History. (…) In the current state of human civilization, Bitcoin is the best form of money ever created. (…) Since the Pax Americana quasi-empire rules via the US dollar, we value Bitcoin against the dollar. Assuming the technology works, the price of Bitcoin will fluctuate based on the price and supply of the dollar. »
Arthur Hayes
A new era of growth for Bitcoin, with the return of money printing?
According to Arthur Hayes, we are entering a new cycle where the United States and China adopt different monetary policies. In the United States, President Trump and the Federal Reserve seem ready to revive the economy by reducing key rates and increasing the money supply. In China, although credit expansion is less aggressive than before, Xi Jinping's government is seeking to avoid deflation of the yuan: “when economic pressure proves too strong (…), Chinese political decision-makers resort to printing money «. This combination could create a unique environment for growth pour Bitcoin.
“Listen to our monetary masters in Washington and Beijing. They clearly state that the currency [fiduciaire (dollar, yuan)] will be cheaper and more abundant. Therefore, Bitcoin continues to rise in anticipation of this highly probable future. The king is dead, long live the king! »
Arthur Hayes
So, is the 4-year cycle linked to halving really dead? In any case, this very likely return to money printing by the two largest economic powers, the United States and China, promises to bring a lot of liquidity to the cryptocurrency sector. The rise in Bitcoin could therefore well to extend this time!