Since July 14, the Bitcoin price has been blocking $ 120,000. The operators take profits around this round psychological figure. And while Bitcoin marks a break, altcoins accelerate. Indeed, the dominance of bitcoin has been decreasing since June, and it has just passed under 61 %. The dominance plunges in particular thanks to the significant performance recorded by Ethereum (ETH), which is accelerating beyond the $ 4,000. US inflation (ICC) stabilizes, and it's pretty good sign for the future. Because the Fed, led by J. Powell, could well lower the rates in September. Can the king of cryptocurrencies accelerate above $ 120,000 in the coming weeks? In The Market Check, we look at if the BTC is still in good on-chain and technical conditions. Let's go!
Bitcoin hesitates around $ 120,000, but the trend remains upward
As explained in the introduction, the king of cryptocurrencies fails to pass significantly above 120 000 $. However, the course of bitcoin is changing well Beyond the average purchase price of short-term holders (orange curve) located more than 107 000 $ :
Graphic representing the price made of short -term holders on Bitcoin. Source: Bitcoin Magazine Pro on this cycle, the orange curve is not a clear threshold separating the bull market of bear market. However, the bullish phases Bitcoin intervenes when the course is exchanged above the average purchase price of short-term holders. Also, if the course blocked around $ 120,000and that he fell, he could bounce At the orange curve. THE Corrections and Bear Market arrive when the BTC Lost the orange curvebut he still has room before being in this situation.
Bitcoin is in a context comparable to 2021
Nothing negative from an On-chain point of view according to the first indicator analyzed, but what about the technical analysis? THE mobile medium of the Bitcoin's Magic Lines indicator are up -orientedthe slight decrease recorded since the last Ath is insufficient to change the technical situation :
Different mobile averages applied to Bitcoin. Source: Checkonchain Bitcoin is therefore bullishwith a course that evolves above mobile averages at 128 days (blue), 200 days (red) and 365 days (orange). But if the course came to weakenhe could find the mobile averages at 128 days and 200 days which are located Between $ 100,000 and $ 105,000. The situation therefore resembles 2021 Bull Runand nothing on this indicator indicates only bullish trend could be called into question.
Towards a return to the extreme euphoria for Bitcoin?
The technical situation and on-chain is encouraging According to the first two indicators. From then on, Bitcoin could prosecute in the coming months. The crypto fear and greed index (CFGI) is in zone d’euphorie (green), and if the BTC explodes the 120 000 $the market feeling indicator could find theextreme euphoria (bleu) :
Graphic of the Crypto Fear and Greed indicator. Source: Glassnode according to the CFGI, we can hope for a new increase To find a situation ofExcess equivalent to 2024. And so far it was interesting to Take profits in extreme euphoria zone. Despite everything, in 2020-2021, Bitcoin had continued its progress for several months, even when the CFGI was in the blue zone.
Still far from a market top according to the top cycle top
The Pi Cycle Top is a precious indicator, because it theoretically allows you to know when the Top you bull run will arrive on Bitcoin. In fact, when the Mobile average at 111 days (green) crosses the Multiple 2 of the Mobile average at 350 days (Violet), a top intervenes. The indicator correctly gave the market summits of the previous two Bull Run :
Pi cycle top indicator. Source: Glassnode
The bitcoin a exceeded $ 100,000and he even managed to Touch $ 123,000and yet the top cycle pi is not about to send its lowering signal. The BTC will have to speed up strongly so that the two mobile averages intersect again as in 2017 and as in 2021. Will the technical indicator be wrong during this cycle? Case to follow.
A break before an upward explosion around $ 200,000?
Since the start of the cyclewe notice that Bitcoin: evolves beyond the Mobile average at 350 days (orange) finds Tops between multiple 1.6 (green) and 2 (red) from the mobile average to 350 days after having bounce On the orange curve, Bitcoin seems to be heading towards the green curve. Even if Bitcoin blocks around 120 000 $a new increase seems possible according to Golden Ratio Multiplier :
Golden Ratio Multiplier indicator. Source: Bitcoin Magazine Pro or, the levels in green and red are found Between $ 145,000 and $ 180,000. If the BTC remains controlled by buyers, it could strongly accelerate. In 2021, the king of cryptocurrencies had managed to develop Beyond the red curve. If the BTC reproduces this performance, it could therefore affect the Psychological threshold at $ 200,000. However, buyers must continue to support the course, because if not, a return to the Mobile average at 350 days is possible. And this level is at the moment around the 90 000 $either 25 % below the current price.
Key points to remember
The course continues to evolve over the mobile averages present on the Bitcoin's Magic Lines indicator of the Checkonchain site. Concretely, the dynamics of Bitcoin is upward and the Bull Run is still intact according to this indicator. And according to, the TOP cycle pi, the Golden Ratio Multiply, and the indicator of Sensation of the Crypto Fear and Greed Index market, the king of cryptocurrencies could still progress before finding a top. On the on-chain side, the situation is also encouraging. Bitcoin is above the average purchase price of short-term holders, and historically, it is under these conditions that the BTC is the most solid. The first capitalization of cryptocurrencies does not seem to have said its last word, and if the $ 120,000 is broken, a spectacular increase could be recorded. Enough to reach $ 200,000? Ethereum, he takes advantage of the consolidation of the BTC to head for $ 5,000.