Bitcoin fell below $67,000 on Friday, hitting its lowest level in weeks, as a «perfect storm» of rising oil prices, bond market tensions and the biggest options expiration this year pushed prices lower.
Bitcoin Price Today At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading around $66,200, down about $2,860 from the previous day. The drop came as Iran tightened its grip on the Strait of Hormuz, turning ships away and virtually closing the passage to countries it considers hostile. With about 20 percent of global oil supplies passing through that narrow strip, energy markets reacted quickly. Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil infrastructure added another layer of pressure, disrupting an alternative solution that had helped offset supply shocks caused by the Iran war. The result is an oil market that continues to push prices up and an inflation picture that continues to worsen. This brings us to the bond market. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields rose to about 4.42%, up about 46 basis points since late February. Analysts at The Kobeissi Letter warned that the pace of growth is similar to that seen in the markets during Liberation Day in April 2025, but this time the situation is much more complex. In less than a month, talk has shifted from rate cuts to rate hikes, with the base case now pointing to a Fed pause for the next 18 months.
«Inflation expectations have become so negative that the market is behaving as if an emergency Fed rate hike is imminent,» said Kobeissi founder Adam Kobeissi.
Adding even more pressure, about $14 billion in Bitcoin options expired on Friday. Derivatives traders say institutional investors spent much of the first quarter selling put options to generate income in a quiet market. This activity transferred risk to market makers, who bought on dips and sold on upswings to keep their positions balanced. The effect was a dampening of volatility that caused Bitcoin to remain stuck in a narrow range. Now that those contracts have expired, the mechanical buying and selling of hedging will disappear, leaving Bitcoin more exposed to external shocks. Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research, presented two scenarios for the second quarter of 2026. If tensions around Iran persist and keep Brent above $120, macro conditions will remain tense in global markets. In this scenario, Bitcoin could drop towards $55,000, Ethereum could test $1,500, and XRP could reach $1.00 as reduced liquidity puts pressure on digital assets. On the other hand, a quick diplomatic resolution could turn things around quickly. If oil prices stabilize lower, Bitcoin could break above $90,000, Ethereum could head towards $2,700-$2,800, and XRP could break above $1.80. Lee pointed out that institutional accumulation through ETFs continues to provide underlying support during volatility. For now, Bitcoin is on track to end March with its sixth consecutive monthly decline — something that hasn't happened since the end of the bear market in 2018. Traders are keeping a close eye on the $65,000-$75,000 range, with macro pressures now the main driver. Some investors continue to accumulate during corrections, and exits from exchanges suggest that coins are being moved to warehouses rather than ready for sale. But with geopolitics, oil and bonds all moving in the same direction, the path of least resistance remains downward until something breaks this cycle.