Since August 14, sellers have had their hands on the Bitcoin course. Buyers can currently maintain the course beyond $ 110,000. But if the resistance at $ 111,000 blocks, a return to $ 106,000 is possible. For its part, the Ethereum course recently found the ATH 2021. A new increase is also possible if the course retains the weekly support at $ 3,900. Bitcoin is in the process of taking a break following its last ATH recorded at more than $ 124,000. Does the cycle are coming to an end after an increase of 700 % from the Bottom of 2022? In The Market Check, we analyze on-chain and techniques data to estimate whether the BTC can still progress in the coming weeks. Let's go!
Back on a significant on-chain support for the Bitcoin course
Bitcoin's course has Tumbled under $ 110,000he therefore records a drop by more than 10 % since the top. A drop like this is rather common, even in times of bull market. Besides, the course finds the Average purchase price of short -term holders around $ 109,000 :
Graphic representing the price made of short -term holders on Bitcoin. Source: Bitcoin Magazine Pro this level on-chain could allow during the BTC to bounce back and come back beyond $ 120,000. In addition, a fall under the orange curve could be a opportunityas has been the case since the start of the cycle. So far, all BTC corrections have ended under the average purchase price of short -term holders. On the other hand, a downside would take shape in case of Rupture of $ 109,000and if this threshold then became resistance, as was the case in 2018 or 2022. For the moment, the situation is always encouraging According to this on-chain data.
Towards a bitcoin rebound in the mobile average at 128 days?
Since the start of the cycle, the price of Bitcoin has been developing upwards. And Bitcoin corrections end around the Mobile average at 365 days (orange). It has now been several years since Mobile averages at 200 days (red) and 128 days (blue) evolve beyond the mobile average at 365 days. Clearly, Bitcoin is in Handy conditions From a technical point of view for several years:
Different mobile averages applied to Bitcoin. Source: Checkonchain the king of cryptocurrencies is back around the Mobile average at 128 days located 110 000 $. And bounce is possible on this technical level. Finally, the Bitcoin course is on a double support (on-chain and technical) around 110 000 $. If it is not enough to relaunch the king of cryptos, the course could find the Mobile average at 200 days. It is located about 100 000 $.
Will fear once again settle on the cryptocurrency market?
With the fall of Bitcoin Under $ 110,000the market feeling indicator Crypto Fear and Greed Index returned to the fear area (orange). Bitcoin's course has exceeded $ 120,000and yet the indicator has not detectedeuphoria As intense as in 2024:
Graphic of the Crypto Fear and Greed indicator. Source: Glassnode if the 110 000 $ are not maintained, the market could be plunge into fear. Should we find theextreme fear (red) To have a end of correction On the king of cryptocurrencies? In 2024 and 2025, the bottoms were marked when the market feeling indicator fell in Extreme fear zone.
The Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score indicates that a new increase is possible
The MVRV Z-Score is an on-chain indicator that lets you know if the king of cryptocurrencies is still in healthy conditions. Indeed, when the MVRV Z-SCORE is in the zone rougethat means that the BTC is in bullish excessand that he is overvalued. Conversely, the MVRV Z-SCORE indicates that the BTC is in a excess lower When he is back in the verte areas. The indicator is rather relevant, because it signs a flawless one so far:
MVRV Z-SCORE indicator. Source: Glassnode the last Haussier signal of the indicator made it possible to accumulate BTC under the 20 000 $an interesting level of purchase now that we know that Bitcoin has exceeded $ 120,000. And now ? The king of cryptocurrencies is not more considered undervalued. The indicator evolving around 2 Currently, there is No bullish excess For now. If Bitcoin continues to behave as in previous cycles, we could still have an increase. THE cycle is far from finished If we only look at this on-chain indicator. However, it is always good to remember that it could, one day or another, to mislead investors.
Significant demand with the continuous increase in the number of addresses holding at least 100 BTC
On ETF Bitcoin in cashAugust is complicated. Indeed, it is the Worse month since the launch After February 2025. Request decreases On these investment products for a few weeks, but other operators continue to be relatively optimistic Regarding the upcoming evolution of the BTC course:
Evolution of the number of addresses with more than 100 BTC. Source: Glassnode the Number of addresses with more than 100 BTCor $ 11 million at the current price, is in constant increase Since the end of 2024. And so far, we can say that they have done well to believe in the first capitalization of cryptos. There request coming from these operators is always strongand this is one more positive element to note. There request does not slow down from these Whales, even with the recent Fall under $ 110,000.
Key points to remember
The recent fall brought Bitcoin around a double support: the average purchase price of short -term holders and the mobile average at 128 days. On-chain and techniques data therefore show that $ 110,000 is important for Bitcoin. A rebound is possible around this round psychological figure. In addition to that, the BTC is still not overvalued according to the MVRV Z-SCORE. Will he soon resume his ascent around $ 130,000? For the moment, Bitcoin remains bullish, and Tim Draper thinks he could even touch $ 250,000.