The butterfly effect. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) announced an increase in its key rate from 0.5% to 0.75%and this is the largest increase in 30 years. This decision did not fail to provoke a reaction from cryptocurrency players, including Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX who sees it as a new warning sign of an explosion in Bitcoin.
The key points of this article:The Bank of Japan announced a historic increase in its key rate from 0.5% to 0.75%.
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, anticipates a Bitcoin explosion to $1 million following this decision.
Arthur Hayes sees Bitcoin at $1 million
Following the BoJ's announcement, Arthur Hayes shared his analysis on X. According to him, this decision could have consequences major players in the market devises and cryptocurrencies. Indeed, he anticipates a depreciation of yen Japanese facing dollar American, with an exchange rate that could reach 200 yen for 1 dollar. At the same time, he sees the price of Bitcoin explode to reach 1 million dollars :
“Don't fight the BoJ: negative real rates are the explicit policy. JPY at 200, and BTC at 1 million. »
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX – Source: Account
Although these figures may seem extravagantthey reflect a vision according to which monetary policies current rates, particularly those involving negative real interest rates, could strongly benefit assets decentralized like Bitcoin. The decision of the BoJ to raise interest rates is surprising, because most central banks Global countries are currently adopting easing policies. But the Japan has its own problems economic internal and he therefore chose to end his silver period cheap. This increase in rates could theoretically slow down investments in risky assets, including cryptocurrenciesas part of what is called the Yen carry trade. However, analysts like Arthur Hayes see this decision from another angle.
Poru Arthur Hayes, rising interest rates in Japan could propel Bitcoin to new heights – Source: Compte
Will Bitcoin remain correlated to US financial markets?
According to them, the increase Japanese rates could actually be beneficial for the Bitcoinbecause if the yen depreciates against the dollar, Japanese investors could turn to the bitcoin as an alternative store of value. Indeed, in a context where real yields remain negative, BTC could theoretically offer a protection against the erosion of purchasing power. Beyond the situation JapanBTC continues to show (very timid) signs of recovery. After reaching a low of 84 390$the flagship cryptocurrency has rebounded, following the trend bullish stock markets Americans. Futures contracts on the Nasdaq 100 increased by 1.5%, while the S&P 500 is also looking to bounce back. This correlation between Bitcoin and traditional markets is not new, but it highlights the growing adoption of BTC as a financial asset in its own right. Although Arthur Hayes' predictions are bold, they shed light on the complex dynamics that link traditional monetary policies and the cryptocurrency market. As the Bank of Japan raises rates, Bitcoin may be poised for another surge, attracting investors seeking value in an increasingly uncertain world. Unless it remains correlated to risk markets which should suffer from the new Japanese economic policy. To find out, see you in 2026.