At the end of February 2026, traditional markets are going through a zone of severe turbulence. As macroeconomic stress intensifies, analysts are frantically scrutinizing flow indicators to understand where capital is hiding. Yet much of the crypto industry seems to be looking at the wrong thermometer. In his research note published on February 20, 2026, Greg Cipolaro, Global Head of Research at NYDIG, sounds the alarm that “Coinbase Premium,” as it is commonly calculated, is a broken metric that leads to systematically erroneous conclusions. The stakes are high. While Bloomberg and several research institutions suggest a capitulation of American investors, a more rigorous analysis shows a much more nuanced reality. The “Corrected Coinbase Premium” actually reveals a capital flow to Bitcoin much more robust than it seems, masked by a massive disaffection for Tether (USDT). It is not just a question of price, but a question of market structure: we are witnessing a concentration of capital towards the most liquid and safest asset in the ecosystem. We take stock.
What is Coinbase Premium? The pedagogy of the spread
To understand thediagnostic errorwe have to go back to basics. THE » Coinbase Premium » is traditionally defined as the difference in Bitcoin price between the BTC-USD pair on Coinbase (the reference platform for American institutions) and the BTC-USDT pair on Binance (dominant on the international and offshore market). In theory, a prime positive sur Coinbase indicates US demand higher than global demand. This is the signal of a “ institutional purchase » in the United States. Conversely, a negative premium is interpreted as selling pressure coming from Uncle Sam. The trap is invisible to the untrained eye, but it is mathematically fatal. To calculate this gap (the famous “Premium”), analysts compare cabbages and carrots: the price of Bitcoin in real Dollars (USD) on Coinbase versus the price of Bitcoin in Tether (USDT) on Binance. The problem ? We assume that 1 USDT is always worth exactly 1 Dollar. This is false. Tether is an asset that lives its own life: it can be worth $0.99 or $1.01. Here is why the indicator becomes a “proxy” (a replacement) for Tether: If Tether loses a little value (for example, it falls to $0.99), it must mechanically plus of Tether to buy a Bitcoin. The price of Bitcoin on Binance (in USDT) therefore appears to be rising artificially. Result: the gap with Coinbase seems to widen or become negative, not because the Americans sellbut simply because Tether is weakening. Clearly, without adjustment, “Coinbase Premium” no longer tells us anything about investors’ appetite for Bitcoin. It only tells us if Tether is losing its parity with the dollar.
NYDIG analysis: the correction that changes everything
In this context, Greg Cipolaro, director of research at NYDIG, is categorical: «The industry's insistence on using this imperfect metric risks drawing systematically incorrect conclusions about market structure. » To obtain a true picture of reality, NYDIG offers the “Corrected Coinbase Premium”. This version converts BTC-USDT prices into real USD terms using the market price of Tether. NYDIG's conclusion after correction is a real twist: the «massive sales signal» in the United States, which was shaking social networks in recent months, would in reality be nothing more than a optical illusion. Certainly, if we look at business hours in New York, we see sell orders, but nothing chaotic. This is called a “orderly” exit. The real scoop is hidden elsewhere: the corrected chart shows that Tether (USDT) has lost its value against the dollar (we will come back to this). Why is this important? Usually, when traders are afraid, they sell their Bitcoins against stablecoins like USDT, banned in Europe, remember, to wait for the storm to pass while remaining in the establishment. There, it's different. Investors don’t just sell Bitcoin; they simply return their stablecoins at the cash register to get “real” dollars and leave the casino. This is the real « capital flight » : a flight of capital from the stablecoin system. Offshore investors (outside the USA) do not sell Bitcoin because they no longer believe in it, they sell everything related to the “parallel” crypto ecosystem to protect themselves. Bitcoin, in this storm, is not the target of the sale, it is just carried away by the global withdrawal movement towards cash.
Graphs explained: Deciphering a mutation
Chart 1 – Classic Coinbase Premium is mostly the price of USDT
Let's understand now. This chart covering the period May 2023 to February 2026 shows extreme volatility of the turquoise green line (USDT Premium/Discount). In contrast, the navy blue line, representing the “Corrected Coinbase Premium,” remains desperately close to 0%. The visual conclusion is immediate: the spectacular fluctuations that the industry attributes to the demand for Bitcoin on Coinbase are, in reality, only a reflection of the price variations of Tether.
Chart 2 – Investors sell their Tether
So, by zooming in on the period from October 2025 to February 2026we observe a striking phenomenon. Starting in November 2025, the USDT premium plunges heavily into negative territory, reaching as much as -0.14%. Meanwhile, the “Corrected Coinbase Premium” remains stable, even slightly positive at the start of 2026. This confirms Cipolaro's thesis: investors are getting rid of their stablecoins to buy Bitcoin or return to the fiat dollar.
Graph 3 – The dominance of Bitcoin on the rise
At the same time, NYDIG supports its point with this historical chart (2014-2025) which illustrates the market share of Bitcoin compared to the rest of crypto-assets. We see clearly marked cycles, but the end of 2025 shows a vigorous recovery of 67.6%. Unlike previous cycles where Bitcoin lost ground to the benefit of “altcoins” at the end of its rise, here it consolidates its position as undisputed leader.
Chart 4 – A historic cycle break.
Bitcoin Dominance Grew This Cycle, For First Time Ever Cycle BTC Dominance Start Peak Change 2017 98.8% 58.8% -40.0% 2021 62.1% 46.0% -16.1% 2025 50.4% 63.2% 12.9% Source: NYDIG, Glass Node Furthermore, the NYDIG compares the change in Bitcoin dominance between the start and the peak of each cycle. In 2017 (-40.0%) and in 2021 (-16.1%), BTC lost its luster in favor of speculation. In 2025, for the first time, dominance will increase by +12.9%. Capital becomes disciplined and focuses on safe haven.
Chart 5 – Weekly performances as of 02/19/2026
As of 02/19/26
Asset/Index
Ticker
Price /
Level
Change
7D
30D
1Y
MTD
QTD
YTD
Digital Asset
Bitcoin
BTC
$67,102.98
2.7%
-25.1%
-30.2%
-13.9%
-23.3%
-23.3%
Indices
S&P 500
SPX
6,861.89
0.5%
1.1%
13.1%
-1.0%
0.4%
0.4%
Nasdaq Composite
CCMP
22,682.73
0.4%
-1.1%
13.8%
-3.3%
-2.3%
-2.3%
Gold
GC1
$4,975.90
1.1%
4.4%
70.4%
5.6%
14.6%
14.6%
Oil
CL1
$66.43
5.7%
10.1%
-8.1%
1.9%
15.7%
15.7%
IG Corp Bond
IBOXIG
3,589.95
0.2%
1.6%
8.0%
1.1%
1.3%
1.3%
HY Corp Bond
IBOXHY
2,940.46
0.1%
0.5%
7.8%
0.4%
0.9%
0.9%
LT US Treasury
ICDOT34
3,396.56
0.4%
3.5%
7.0%
3.0%
2.5%
2.5%
Real Yields
5Y TIPS
DFII5
1.22%
0.00%
-0.24%
-0.49%
-0.04%
-0.25%
-0.25%
10Y TIPS
DFII10
1.79%
-0.01%
-0.18%
-0.29%
-0.11%
-0.14%
-0.14%
Inflation
5Y Breakevens
T5YIE
2.46%
-0.02%
0.04%
-0.23%
-0.10%
0.19%
0.19%
5Y, 5Y FWD
T5YIFR
2.30%
-0.02%
-0.04%
-0.17%
-0.05%
0.05%
0.05%
Source: NYDIG, Bloomberg, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, ICE
Enfin, le dernier tableau de bord montre un cours du BTC à 67 102,98 $ (au moment de sa rédaction) en hausse de 2,7 % sur sept jours. En comparaison, l’or (+1,1 %) et le pétrole (+5,7 %) montrent des signes de vigueur, tandis que les indices actions stagnent. Le Bitcoin tente de se stabiliser alors que les investisseurs digèrent les pertes récentes.
Cette concentration du capital sur le Bitcoin n’est pas accidentelle. Elle traduit un rstructural narrowing of blockchain use cases. Blockchains turn out to be above all registers of financial assets. The utopia of a global “Web3” is fading in the face of a simple economic reality: centralized systems are more efficient for the majority of non-financial uses.
A maturity forced by the crisis
This progressive concentration of capital on Bitcoin is not anecdotal. It reflects a structural evolution of the crypto market: an increasing share of flows is heading towards the most liquid and established asset in the ecosystem. The NYDIG report from February 2026 above all highlights the importance of rigorous analysis of metrics. Correcting Coinbase Premium, Greg Cipolaro shows that the “American surrender” signal was largely an illusion created by Tether weakness. It remains to be seen whether this movement of concentration will be confirmed in the coming weeks, or if it only constitutes a temporary reaction to the current period of macroeconomic stress.