If you go on the weekend on Calea Victoriei in Bucharest, the most important promenade and spent money in Romania, you do not realize that the world is in flames. The commercial war triggered by Donald Trump seems far away and no one believes, until his contrary, that his life, that his job that his walk on Calea Victoriei, that ice cream, specialty coffee and his pizza will be affected at some point if America enters the recession, if Europe is in recession. Salaries enter the card in time and no black clouds are seen on the horizon. It is true that the weekend on Calea Victoriei, when the traffic is closed, is unique and is not found in other cities, perhaps with the exception of Cluj and Iasi. The purchasing power in Bucharest is 50% higher than in the country. At the weekend, on Calea Victoriei stays for 20-30 minutes for ice cream, and it is not cheap at all, pizza ovens go non-stop, and the glasses of proseco, rose or white wine are emptied immediately. And anyway you are not a true corporate if you do not stay 20 minutes in the queue at Nea Mihai's shit. At the opposite end, in Arad, the American company Greenbrier has just announced that it will close the freight wagon factory with 700 employees. The production will be moved to Caracal and Drobeta-Turnu Severin. But even so, that the production moves elsewhere and that the 700 employees could be absorbed immediately by the other companies in the area looking for people, the signal is stupid. First of all for the city, then for the state, which will have lower income. But in the state, the government seems to be not interested in this topic. More important is Dragoş Sprînceanu, Ciolacu's emissary of America. In Timisoara the signals in the automotive industry are extremely bad, and this can be seen through staff reductions, giving up an exchange, freezing and salary increases. In Brasov, a company in Automotive has reduced the work week from five to four days not to kick out people. Everything that happens in Europe, everything that happens in Germany, everything that happens in the world car industry is seen in Romania's exports, which either grow very little or decrease. Instead, imports continue to dedicate, which means the increase of the commercial deficit, for example at two months this year we already have 30% compared to the similar period of last year. Economic growth this year – 2.5% official forecast and 1.5-2% at the level of analysts – is reduced by each passing month. To this will be added the impact of the world commercial war triggered by Trump, which, at a first estimate of economists, means a decrease of 0.3%, even 0.5% of Romania's economic growth. And this was before the war of tariffs triggered by the White House administration, especially with China, reached an unprecedented level. How can you transfer to the final buyer, the American, an increase in tariffs to 125%? No one will buy that product. If this commercial war continues, the volatility on the scholarships will turn into a continuous decrease, which will trigger unprecedented reactions worldwide. Each one has in one way or another an exhibition on the American stock exchange, an exposure to the bond market, an exposure to the foreign exchange market, etc. In Bucharest, the Ciolacu Government and the budget are kept alive, are financed only by the big interest to which the Ministry of Finance is borrowed, to which the incredible stability of the Leo/Euro exchange rate is added. When the course will be able to get out of aisle 4.977 lei for one euro, it will be a real breaking news. But at one point, this big interest tool will also be exhausted. For example, the sales of fidelis government securities have decreased quite significantly from month to month. If in February the Ministry of Finance sold to the population State securities Fidelis in lei and euros worth 4.2 billion lei, in March the sales decreased to 2.2 billion lei, and now in April they have dropped to 1.3 billion. Romanians have money, but they do not have unlimited money, especially if the wages do not increase. If the commercial war triggered by Trump will bring even more to decrease the scholarships and then reach the economy by sending America in recession, everyone will be affected by the domino effect. In the case of Romania, we are in a different situation compared to 2008/2009, but the global crisis will reach us. We are no longer prisoners of exposures in foreign currency, but we are the prisoners of the budget deficit. The Ciolacu government, or who will come to the Victoria Palace after the presidential elections (it is not obligatory to fall the government), has no desire to make any restructuring, so it will try to keep the budget deficit by reducing the amounts allocated to investments. It has no other solution. Can I replace the tails from ice cream and pizza on Calea Victoriei, closing a railway factory, giving up an exchange or reducing the working week in the automotive industry? Can I replace the queues from Merdenei and Miţa Biciclista Lack of budget restructuring, the losses of European funds, where the Ciolacu government does not seem to have any too much determination to move the projects? Do we have what to defend ourselves and with whom if this commercial war triggered by Trump will throw the world economy in recession?
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