Financial analysts members of CFA Romania estimates for 2026 an economic growth of maximum 0.5%, accessing European funds being essential for resuming the GDP advance in 2027. ”The year 2026 will be a difficult year, against the background of major concerns about the political risk and the adjustment of the budget deficit. European funds will be essential for resuming economic growth starting with fiscal year 2027 ”, say analysts. Also, inflation will remain at high levels, in the context of possible new tax increases and to maintain large budget deficits. The disinflation process will most likely be resumed in the second part of the year, but the fiscal policy will remain the main risk factor. The exchange rate will probably continue the tendency of gradual depreciation. «The fiscal policy will continue to be tightened by increasing taxes and financial repression, with negative effects on the demand. The interest rates will remain at high levels, against the background of a persistent and high inflation.» GDP growth will remain modest, affected by unfavorable internal conditions, such as unpredictable and discretely applied fiscal policies, the need for additional fiscal consolidation, decreased real wages, in the context of high inflation and slowing the rhythm of salaries growth, the contribution decreasing to the economic growth of the construction and the IT sectors. CFA Romania will publish on Tuesday an analysis on the macroecomic situation of Romania, carried out by Alexandra Smedoiu, CFA, vice -president of the CFA Romania Association and by Adrian Codirlaşu, CFA, president of the CFA Romania Association. For 2025, the last forecasts of the government indicate an economic growth of 0.6% and a budget deficit of 8.4%.
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