Cristian Popa, BNR: Most of the economic growth potential in Romania comes from the capital.
♦ European funds remain critical for Romania and represent the little economic growth it still has ♦ Consumption no longer warms the economy, but still investments are maintained and remain essential ♦ Investors have expectations, they are relatively satisfied with how interest rates are seen in the market, and if Romania derails again, it would be a total disappointment. In the most improbable scenario, Romania will still have economic growth, and next year the expectations are that the pace will be slightly lower than in 2025. Slowed economic developments do not mean a recession, but only that the paradigm is changing, consumption is no longer heating the economy, and the resettlement on the investment trajectory, which is maintained, requires time, in a context in which the corrections postponed for years are being paved. Investor sentiment is positive, despite the rigid climate looming for the next two years, but as long as there is some predictability, opportunities remain. The only critical problem that Romania could not afford would be a derailment from the fiscal trend and a possible political crisis. These were some of the ideas derived from the discussions that took place during the KRUK Summit of Now conference, at which NV was a media partner. «For this year, we had 0.8% growth in the first three quarters. If Q4 comes with zero economic growth, then the annual growth is 1.3%, which is not exactly bad. In order to remain an economic growth of 0.8% for all four quarters, then in Q4 it should be -2%. We see decent growth this year, a little deceleration next year, just under 1%», explained Cristian Popa, member of the BNR's CA. «We rather look at the whole year and remain on growth, but slightly lower than this year, and after 2027 we should return to the economic growth we are used to. The growth potential of the economy is around 3%. Much of the economic growth potential in Romania comes from the capital.» He also said that at the fundamental level things are recovering, but in the short term we have inflation. In the middle of next year it should drop sharply to 5%, but the period of economic recovery will last two years with lower growth. This does not mean recession. «The unbalanced economic growth is being corrected abruptly. We prefer a smaller but healthy economic growth. It is necessary to reduce the fiscal deficit, the external deficit. We are approaching 60% public debt of GDP. We are seeing a paradigm shift, consumption is no longer heating the economy, but still investments are being maintained. We are changing the trend regarding the fiscal deficit, we cannot afford a political crisis. Investors have expectations, they are relatively satisfied with how interest rates are seen in the market. I think it would be a total disappointment if it seemed that we were derailing again», added Cristian Popa.
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