♦ The coalition that is foreshadowed in government – so -called pro -European parties – examines the hypothesis of budget reductions, as well as the increase of taxes and takes as a support of the IMF published on Friday, which requires tax increases to reduce the budget deficit of 9.3% of GDP last year (standard ESA 10) ♦ To overcome this obstacle, not at all simple, without tax increases ♦ Romania cannot give up the fiscal advantage of reduced taxes and should not, they say. Today's economic Romania is in a difficult situation, admits the economist Laurian Lungu. But it adds that it is not serious, as the world believes. «We have to buy time. We have to buy 18 months or 24 months and we will return.» The problem is that when you want to buy it must be someone willing to sell. The IMF is «willing» to «sell» for the time being, but at what price?Here is what the IMF proposes, at large, in a recommendation of last Friday: ► renouncing the single share and switching to two income tax quotas, 15% and 25%. ► Increased VAT, excise duties and dividend tax, as well as the modification of the tax on land and buildings.Now that the auction has been opened, who buys? «VAT growth will have an effect for the budget, for sure. But the effect will be only two to three months, then it dissipates. Romania does not have to sell the competitive advantage of low taxes. The big problem is evasion. The problem of Romania is not of small taxes, but of high evasion,» says Laurian Lungu. But why do I recommend the IMF to give up the single share? The unique share was associated, at least in Romania, with the liberal right, and the progressive quota with socialism. Did the IMF become a socialist institution? «I do not think this is the explanation. Something needs to be changed, anyway. And many taxpayers in Romania would not be upset if they were from the unique share to a progressive share. A kind of big dressing on a small scratch. In addition, it has political support. PSD supports the progressive quota and those who think that they think that» the rich «,» The data of the Ministry of Finance show that the state tax revenues are also at 27-28% of GDP and today as in the time of the Nastase Government, when I had a progressive share of income taxation. «It depends on what you tax» progressively «. The salary or the income? I remember that I had to complete all kinds of things – I was teaching in the faculty, I was writing to the newspapers – everything, everything had to be put on paper. Complicated for everyone, and for the Fisc. The progressive tax is complicated, I do not understand those who apply it,» The president and the governing coalition should announce a restructuring package today to reduce the huge budget deficit. It is impossible to reduce the deficit to 7% of GDP, from 9.3% last year, says Laurian Lungu. When the past government made the program to reduce the deficit, the hypothesis started from a deficit of 8.6% of GDP – and that reduction to 7% of GDP was a utopia anyway. Now that we know that the deficit (Standard ESA 10) was 9.3% of GDP last year, there is no chance of a deficit of 7% of GDP in 2025, says the economist: «an extra 0.7% of GDP over the estimated one is huge.» If this is the case, the problem is greater than I imagine. It is not serious, says Laurian Lungu. We have to «buy time.» But a second of time costs more than all the gold in the world. The future government will have this difficult task: «to buy time.» He just doesn't have gold.The calendar of the week Today the new package of measures to reduce the budget deficit would be announced. It is possible, but unlikely, as we still celebrate Pentecost, and the budgets have a free day on Monday. Probably tomorrow we will know more.The measures discussed so far to reduce the deficit: ► Increasing VAT from 9 to 19% for Horeca, as well as for other types of services such as the installation of photovoltaic panels and heat pumps, restaurant and catering services, etc. ► Increasing the reduced VAT rate from 5 to 9% for the delivery of school textbooks, books and magazines, including electronic, etc. ► Increasing the standard VAT rate from 19 to 21% ► imposing a 20% solidarity tax for natural persons exceeding 10,000 lei ► Gambling could be taxed by 10% over 10,000 lei, 20% over 20,000 lei. Prohibition of cash on gambling or introduction of CASS + 20% direct tax to source ► Reduce and cut a series of bonuses, such as the increase for harmful conditions from 15% to 5%, the incentive for European funds, confidentiality and secret information ► eliminates the 13th salary ► 20% of state institutions and agencies are abolished.
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