In a surprising shift in outlook, the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced on Wednesday that global demand for oil and gas could continue to grow until 2050, signaling a sharp departure from earlier predictions of a rapid transition to clean energy sources. The institution's conclusion suggests that the world is about to miss the climate goals established for reducing emissions, informs Reuters. The IEA – nicknamed the «guardian of the West's energy security» – has been under political pressure for years, especially from the United States, to support a more pragmatic vision of energy production. During the Trump administration, Washington demanded an increase in American oil and gas production, while later, under the presidency of Joe Biden, the IEA estimated that global oil demand will peak before 2030, and new investments in fossil fuels will no longer be necessary to meet climate targets. However, the agency's current position contradicts those predictions. Chris Wright, the US Secretary of Energy in the Trump administration, described the previous forecasts as «absurd», arguing that the global market proves otherwise. According to the annual «World Energy Outlook» report published on Wednesday, the IEA predicts, in the scenario based on current policies, that the world oil demand will reach 113 million barrels per day by 2050, an increase of about 13% from the level of 2024. At the same time, the total energy demand at the global level would increase by 15% by 2035, the equivalent of an additional 90 exajoules. The «current policies» scenario is based solely on measures already implemented by governments, without including promises or plans to achieve climate goals. It is the first time since 2019 that the IEA returns to such a «realistic» scenario, abandoning the optimistic projections based on the «zero emissions» commitments assumed by the states. The agency explained that it wanted to evaluate the new climate targets for the period 2031-2035, but too few countries submitted concrete plans, which makes a relevant analysis impossible. In the alternative scenario, based on policies proposed but not yet adopted, the IEA still estimates that oil demand could peak around 2030, but even this scenario seems increasingly unlikely in the current market context.
For other news, analyses, articles and business information in real time, follow NV on WhatsApp Channels