Miloslav Roháček (meteobox.cz) 06.06.2025 06:45:47, updated 06:45:49
Above Central Europe is a undulating frontal interface. During the day cloudy to partly cloudy, highest temperatures 23 to 28 ° C, cooler in the west and north of Bohemia, there only up to 21 ° C. During the afternoon, the creation of clouding clouds with showers or thunderstorms, occasionally stronger. The wind only weak up to 7 m/s, in the Czech Republic it can blow up to 15 m/s during the day. In the storms the wind temporarily intensifies. Conditions: The models offer again a very interesting situation, which is always a bit of a nut for every meteorologist. On Friday there is a classic situation that can be summarized as low energy, stronger dynamic support (Low Cape/High Shear). Models show fluctuating CAPE values in the order of hundreds, up to 600 j/kg. What is essential, however, is a strengthening wind cut, which in a layer of 0-6 km will reach the value of up to 30 m/s. The night probing correlates with the outputs of the Icon D2, the values actually measured are almost identical to the predicted ones. So if we look forward to Friday afternoon we will find that we will also climb a low-level cut 0-1 km, to 10, exceptionally more m/s. ICON D2 and the EU also predict increased support from the so -called Helicity, a parameter that helps to determine whether the output currents supplying storms will tend to rotate. Specifically, we are talking about 140-180 m2/S2 (more realistic values up to 150 m2/s2). The temperature interface belt will lie approximately in the belt during the afternoon, which stretches from Pilsen, through the vicinity of Prague to the Náchod and Jeseníky. During the morning, the rain zone will begin to stretch from the west to the southwest from Germany, which is likely to cover mainly the western and northwest tip of Bohemia. Below it between 12-15 o'clock, stronger show cores will gradually begin, in which lightning discharges will also appear. These thunderstorms are likely to proceed in the belt either directly across Prague and the surrounding area with stretching to South Bohemia, or they will start to be created in close proximity to the metropolis and proceed very quickly to the east to the northeast. These thunderstorms and stronger showers can also show rotation due to the conditions, so we must again count on the possibility of a unique occurrence of Supercel. Unlike previous days, there should be fewer. If energy is sufficient at all, I assume that there will be several significant storm cores that will intensify during the procedure to the east or the situation will be managed by one dominant cell (Supercela), which will be created somewhere in the belt from Příbram-Austrian, as well as the direction of Prague. Another focus of storms will probably lie in Poland and smaller showers with detected discharges will appear in northern Austria or Saxony. In the evening, the storm activity will cease and the fading showers will disintegrate. Storms should not be as strong as in previous days, but from the experience of previous years I know that the situation like today will sometimes surprise (even with the real force of the storms). In the strongest cores may appear hail (up to 3cm) and stronger wind. Please note that today's situation with a probability bordering on certainty will not achieve the strength we have seen over Moravia on Thursday, but the transition of storms/weaker supercel during the afternoon through Bohemia is so likely that I decided to issue this prediction with a certain amount of uncertainty. The thunderstorms will appear again on Saturdays and can be strong. Again, with the possibility of supercellar storms, which seems to be one of the common color of our published predictions. I will inform you about the situation in more detail in the forecast on Saturday.
A source of weather data
The weather forecast for Met Norway is supplied by the Norwegian Meteorological Institute and NRK.
Feeling temperature
To calculate the feeling temperature, we use the Australian Apparent Temperature (AAT) model, which is designed for year -round calculations and takes in addition to wind temperature and speed, the humidity. Calculators of feeling temperature (AAT model, wind chill model).