For several days now, the price of Bitcoin has been rebounding. It managed to keep the $80,000 threshold, and it exceeded $90,000. Will the rebound continue on the king of cryptocurrencies and will the $100,000 be recovered? If the Fed decides to cut rates, risk appetite could return. In The Market Check, we look at whether BTC is in good conditions to continue to rise sustainably, or whether the current rebound is only temporary. Let’s get to the heart of the matter right away!
Bitcoin rebounds beyond $90,000, but the situation is still fragile
For several days, the sellers have less strengthand the price of Bitcoin took the opportunity to return beyond the 90 000 $. The king of cryptos is regaining color, but the rebound of 17% since the last low does not erase the drop recorded since the last top around $126,000. In addition, the course remains far from the average purchase price of short-term holders (orange curve):
Graph representing the realized price of short-term holders of Bitcoin. Source: Bitcoin Magazine Pro In this configuration, two scenarios are possible for the king of cryptocurrencies: the price blocks against the orange curve, and the crypto market enters bear market (as in 2022) BTC manages to return above the orange curve, and in this case, a new bullish phase is possible
To avoid the bearish scenariothe rebound must be sufficiently powerful to come back and stay beyond $103,000. Otherwise, the decline could continue below 80 000 $.
The king of cryptocurrencies remains below the 365-day moving average
The fall of Bitcoin around 80 000 $ led to a loss of the 365-day moving average (orange). And even if BTC regains color, it remains well below the orange curve :
Different moving averages applied to Bitcoin. Source: Checkonchain To avoid a scenario comparable to bear market of 2022the price will have to rebound above the orange curve. The 365-day moving average sits at $102,000 at the time of writing, and sellers could keep control of BTC if it were to reject around $100,000. The 365-day moving average and short-term holders' average purchase price are around the 100 000 $. Therefore, this psychological level will be very important to recover for Bitcoin.
Despite the rise in BTC, the crypto market remains immersed in extreme fear
The indicator Crypto Fear and Greed Index returned to 10 (extreme fear in red) because of the fall of Bitcoin. And even if the king of cryptocurrencies tries to join the 100 000 $market sentiment is still febrile :
Crypto Fear and Greed indicator chart. Source: Glassnode Can BTC revive despite a very bearish market sentiment ? In 2024 and 2025, the price of Bitcoin had completed its corrections when the Crypto Fear and Greed Index was in extreme fear zone. There is therefore still hope for the first capitalization of the crypto market, but it will be necessary avoid staying in the red zone for too long.
Bitcoin returns to a key zone with the recent fall
Historically, the return to the level of two-year moving average (green) is an opportunity for Bitcoin enthusiasts. Investors have so far judged this level to be a interesting entry point in the long term :
Evolution of the Bitcoin price and the moving average over two years. Source: Bitcoin Magazine Pro. In tumbling around $80,000Bitcoin has returned to the green curve. If BTC behaves as before, a bounce significant amount is possible around this level. Despite everything, the fall below the green curve could lead to bearish volatility.
Key points to remember
The bearish volatility brought the Bitcoin price back to the level of the two-year moving average. This technical level could generate further bullish momentum. But to be able to find encouraging conditions, it will be necessary to recover the $100,000 on Bitcoin. Indeed, this would make it possible to move back beyond the 365-day moving average and above the average purchase price of short-term holders. For its part, Ethereum is trying to get back towards $4,000.
SUIVI PORTEFEUILLE STEADY LADS 100 000$
Allocation as of 10.12.25:
💵 Stablecoins : 22 % — 💰 Cryptos : 78 %
The Steady Lads portfolio adjusts to the recovery: Cara gradually increases exposure by taking advantage of the rebound while maintaining measured risk management. If BTC continues its trajectory towards $100,000, further adjustments may be considered.
📍 Follow the complete evolution of Cara's portfolio and decisions in real time on Steady Lads