How long can the expectations be challenged by the American economy? Despite the shock of the tariffs, inflation remains down, the scholarships increase, the unemployment decreases. Economists, however, remain skeptical that the «miracle» can continue too much. President Trump: «The so-called experts are wrong again»

When Donald Trump took over six months ago, the economic analysts held their breath. The president had promised a radical political and economic agenda for his second mandate: a broad repression of migration that threatened the offer of labor force, a dramatic reduction in the size of the federal government and a new tariff regime, with negative implications for growth and inflation, writes FT. However, even though the US president violated all the conventional policy rules in the first half of this year, the world's largest economy has proven, surprisingly, resistant. At the White House, Trump has implemented his promises-and even more. He deported thousands of migrants, cuts massively from the contracts of the federal government and shocked the markets by announcing unexpectedly high rates for American trading partners. Moreover, he tried to press the US Federal Reserve to reduce interest. However – at least for now – the economic data does not show clear signs of negative effects, the official statistics repeatedly exceed the expectations of the economists. «Fake News and the so-called 'experts' have wrong again,» Trump wrote this month on his platform, Social Truth. «The rates make our country 'explode'.» The economy may not bloom at the level supported by the president, but did not begin to collapse, as many experts were afraid following the tariff regime announced on April 2, called Trump. Despite a slight growth, inflation has remained modest, the labor market has proven solid, the profits on Wall Street are kept at a healthy level, and the actions have recovered after a recoil. Although the economy has contracted in the three months until April-the first quarterly decline of the last three years-the markets have not been affected, investors interpreting the 0.5% decrease of GDP as a race before the tariffs, not as a sign of a fundamental weakness. According to the GDPNow projection of the Federal Reserve in Atlanta, it is estimated that GDP growth will climb to 2.4% in the second quarter, the figures to be published next week. «I would say that there is no serious concern, in a broad sense,» says Thomas Simons, chief economist for the US investment bank, referring to the general state of the economy, noting that the negative perception of consumers is, in many cases, disconnected by the economic reality. «If we look in history what causes recessions, they are usually financial shocks, contracting the monetary mass, sudden changes in fiscal policies – things like this – and we are not there.»
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