Everyone believes that money is on all roads and that we can have access to them when we want. And if the interest can be interest, as in Europe, and the payment terms should be as high. Romania has arrived today as it is, at a GDP of 350 billion euros (the added value produced by the economy in one year) compared to 30 billion euros in 2000, for example, because it benefited first and foremost: – European funds, especially after joining the European Union (this is about the rhetoric against Brussels) – 100 billion euros, of which I gave back 30 billion and remained with 70 billions; – foreign investments – over 100 billion euros; – the external financing lines taken by banks and multinational- 40-50 billion euros; – the money of the Romanians who work abroad and they sent them to the country- over 100 billion euros. All these financing sources contributed to the economic growth, contributed to the increase of the Romanian private capital, which in turn had the money to invest, contributed to the decrease of the interest in lei, the stability of the Leo/Euro exchange rate, contributed to the increase salaries both in nominal and real value – the average net salary exceeded 1,000 euros, as well as the recovery of the gaps to The European Union – 20 years ago I was 35% compared to the EU average, now I reached 78%. The problem is that at this moment some of these financial sources decrease for economic reasons – repositioning of investments, lower profitability, social tensions that begin to appear in Romania after two decades of peace, unfavorability for the European Union and NATO, of internal political changes, the occurrence of the sovereign current, etc. After a peak in 2022 of over 10 billion euros, foreign investments decreased to 5 billion euros last year and I do not know if we can rely on a higher value in the coming years. Due to the administrative bureaucracy, we attract European funds much less than the government forecasts in the budget. For example, last year we took only 6, billion euros, when we should have taken 12 billion euros. This year the government has passed 16 billion euros in its budget and there are big question marks if we will take half. However, the Ciolacu 2 government, which is almost identical to Ciolacu 1, does not seem to make the importance of attracting European funds by speeding up the projects related to the public administration. We better lose 3 billion euros or how much it is to solve the problem of political appointments in the board of the companies, this to give just one example. It is better to finance the investments from the budget, borrowing at interest of over 7%, than to take European money with a much lower interest. Budget money can be better divided into projects than European money. Anyway, we all pay this. Also, foreign investors who finance Romania's public debt begin to reduce their exposure on the Romanian state titles due to the political and social risk. For example, at the last exit on the international market the demand for Romanian bonds was not so high as in previous years, even though the interests offered by Romania were increasing. This year the government's financing requirement is 213 billion lei (in lei and currency), the equivalent of over 42 billion euros, money that must be attracted, regardless of who will be in Cotroceni or at the Victoria Palace. Local financial market – banks, Pillar II of pensions, the population – can support some of this financing, but cannot cover everything. The Ministry of Finance is currently the main buyer of money in the market, setting the interest level at over 7% for lei, even 7.9%, and 6% for euros, even 6.75%, at least for individuals. If the economy does not grow as in the last 15 years, and it seems that it does not grow at the same rate, and the money that accumulates both at the level of individuals and at the level of companies will not increase so much. If this geopolitical tension will continue longer and increase in intensity, Romania may be affected more than we expect, because everyone will take a few steps back-both foreign investors, multinationals and foreign banks The Romanian capital, both of the Romanian companies and of the natural persons. It is already seen how the Romanian capital accumulated in the last 10-15 years are leaving to hide in safer areas. Mugur Isarescu, the governor of the BNR, mentioned in the last press conference that the NBR is starting to make reserve plans for the case, after the presidential elections, we will wake up with the exit of external financing through their renewal. All the Romanian companies, all the Romanian entrepreneurs invoke the more difficult access to the banking financing and the big interest that the banks perceive. But banks have credit money if they have deposits and offer interest on loans according to interest on warehouses. If the interest rates are high because the Ministry of Finance offers great interest to attract money, where to give banks smaller interests on loans? Only the state can buy money from the market with an interest rate of 7.9% and then offer loans to subsidized interest companies, ie with a much lower interest. This loss goes to the general budget of the state, which we all pay. Mugur Isarescu also, in the last conference, invoked more than ever the need to attract European funds, not another but these European funds that are allocated to us through the PNR and the European funds in the current financial year, over 100 billion euros, have interest small or are non -reimbursable and exist. For the other funds, the interest is large or even may not be, and here I refer to the decrease of foreign investments, reduce the exposure of foreign investors on public debt -God forbids to be thrown into the «junk» category -, reducing the money sent to Country by Romanians working outside. Let us not forget that Mugur Isarescu said that the price of current political and social tensions is seen in the much higher level of interest in lei. Not to mention the fact that the Ministry of Finance, that is, the Government, regardless of its name and political color, will need a lot of money to cover the budget deficits and to finance the public debt, which is increasing. Let us not forget that public debt will increase from 52% of GDP, to 62% of GDP in the next seven years, and that means an increasing nominal public debt. All this money for the financing of the state must be taken from somewhere. Not to mention the fact that the private economy also needs money, you will need more and more money, especially if the times will be troubled, as announced. At this moment, in a realistic way, the European funds, these 100 billion euros in the next seven years, are the cheapest and most palpable source of financing for Romania, for the Romanian economy, for the state sector and the private sector. We need this money to have another decade of economic growth, to support the Romanian companies, to support the macroeconomic balances – lower inflation, the decrease of the interest in lei, the stability of the foreign exchange rate. For the other financing resources, no one knows how things will evolve into the global tensions that are foreshadowed on the horizon, in the commercial wars announced, the security changes that are restored to the table. Before others -the Chinese, the Arabs, the Russians (many invoke the need for good relations with Russia) and even the Americans -, our strongest economic, financial, social, political is the European Union, Brussels. Not everyone agrees bureaucracy and political of all kinds of Brussels, but up to another the European Union still puts real money – 100 billion euros for the next seven years. Before the Romanian entrepreneurs, the Romanian companies bring into question Brussels, it may be best not to forget that without the European money we will not have much economic growth, and the macroeconomic indicators will become extremely volatile. Under these conditions, the salaries will not increase, nor the Romanian capital will increase.
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