♦ An improvement in the outlook for spring crops was hard to believe, however, because geopolitical tensions, such as the war in Iran, are affecting fertilizer supplies ♦ Even if some farmers have already secured their autumn-winter stocks, when prices were better, not all have the necessary resources for spring crops. And under these conditions, the optimistic estimates for corn could be confirmed or, on the contrary, could be adjusted again in the coming months. Romania's total grain and oilseed production is estimated at 28.6 million tons in 2026, slightly below last year's 29.6 million tons, according to COCERAL, the European association of grain and oilseed traders. Estimates for wheat have been revised down from those in December, when analysts were more optimistic due to autumn rains, while for corn there is an increase from the first winter forecast, which means that it is recovering from two difficult years of drought and heat, phenomena that cut production in half compared to normal years. If in December wheat production was estimated at 12.1 million tons, in March the forecast dropped to 11 million tons. However, the culture remains the most extensive in Romania, with about 2.2 million hectares, the largest surface of the almost 9 million hectares of arable land. «For wheat, the reduction in the estimate is mainly the result of specific problems that occurred in the winter. Although, overall, we had precipitation, there were areas affected by frost, but also areas with puddles, which partially compromised the crops. In some cases, there were losses of density or even the need to return some parcels», are some observations, from the field, literally, made by Teofil Dascălu, CEO of Frizon Group, a large grain producer from Vrancea, and the president of the Forum of Professional Farmers and Processors from Romania (FAPPR). Dragoş Telehuz, who together with his family manages the Telehuz Agriserv farm in Ialomiţa county, where they grow about 600 hectares of grain, says that wheat could suffer this year, because part of the areas were sown late, due to the prolonged autumn and the delayed harvest of corn, which affects the production potential. In this context, factors in the field also influence analysts' estimates and explain the downward revisions of production. Even with this estimate for wheat, at the European level, Romania maintains its fourth place in the ranking of wheat producers. France remains the leader, with an estimated production of 32 million tons, followed by Germany, with 21.5 million tons, and Poland, with 13 million tons, according to COCERAL. Romania, with 11 million tons, maintains its consolidated position in the last decade, except for 2020, when the drought drastically reduced the harvest to 6.4 million tons. In recent years, wheat has surpassed corn in the top cultivated areas, against the background of the drought that strongly affected the latter crop. Maize, which traditionally reached 2.4-2.5 million hectares, fell below the 2 million hectare threshold, and productions were almost halved: 6 million tons in 2024 and 7 million tons in 2025, respectively, well below a normal agricultural year.
For corn, however, the prospects are somewhat more optimistic for the 2026 agricultural year. If in December the COCERAL representatives were talking about an area of 1.7 million hectares and a production of 7.8 million tons, the March estimates show an increase to 1.9 million cultivated hectares and a production of approximately 8.8 million tons, the highest in the last three agricultural years. Dragoş Telehuz says that, in the case of corn, it is possible to increase the areas cultivated in a non-irrigated system, because part of the land remained free after the wheat did not have time to be sown, and on the other hand, there are areas that came out of the winter with a good supply of water in the soil, which gives farmers more confidence. «In addition, corn remains an important link in the rotation of crops, and without it, agricultural planning becomes more difficult», emphasizes the farmer. And in the case of oleaginous crops, there are adjustments compared to a few months ago. For rapeseed, the initial estimates were one million hectares and 3 million tons, and now they are more moderate. Currently, the area is estimated at around 800,000 hectares, and the production at 2.2 million tons. On the other hand, in sunflower there is a slight increase to 1.2 million hectares and a production of 2.3 million tons, according to COCERAL. «In the case of corn and sunflower, the increase in estimates comes, most likely, from a repositioning of farmers after the losses in autumn crops. Part of the compromised areas will be re-sown with spring crops, especially sunflower, where I even expect a more visible increase in the area», says Teofil Dascălu. In rapeseed, he mentions, the situation is similar to that of wheat. Part of the surface was returned, mainly due to frost and excess water, and another part was lost due to problems entering the winter, more precisely insufficiently developed plants in certain areas. «This explains the significant difference from the December estimates.» «With rapeseed, it was predictable that the areas would decrease, because the rains came late and a good part of it is too small and did not come out of the winter. The one left in the crop does not compare with the stage of last year and will give mediocre productions, at most. The areas turned with rapeseed will be mostly occupied with sunflowers. They occupy the same slot in the rotation», explained Telehuz. An improved outlook for spring crops was unlikely, however, as geopolitical tensions such as the Iran war affect fertilizer supplies. Even if some of the farmers have already secured their fall-winter stocks, when prices were better, not all of them have the necessary resources for spring crops. And under these conditions, the optimistic estimates for corn could be confirmed or, on the contrary, could be adjusted again in the coming months. «A good part of the farmers (probably more than 60%) secured their fertilizers in time, including against the background of uncertainties related to the CBAM (carbon tax for imports from outside the EU – ed.) and geopolitical developments; however, high input costs will have a clear impact on the applied technology. Therefore, even if the area increases, I expect the production level to be below potential, with a possible decrease of at least 10-15% compared to an optimal year. As for prices, they can still have significant variations until the harvest. However, the current levels offer a certain degree of confidence to farmers», said Teofil Dascălu, with grain prices on the stock exchange being 10% higher than three months ago.
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