♦ The chief economists of BCR, Raiffeisen, BRD and the National Bank warned that the economy is not going through a passing situation, but an inflection point ♦ We have an economic model based on consumption fueled by imports, external debt, with accelerated wage convergence, but without productive convergence, with European funds complemented too little by private investments ♦ Romania borrows at a significant premium compared to all regional markets, more expensive than countries that are not in investment grade such as Serbia.The growth model that supported Romania’s economy in the last two decades seems to have reached the end of the road. Based on consumption, fueled by imports, foreign debt, accelerated salary increases and European funds, but without a similar increase in productivity and without a sufficient contribution of private investments, this model generated convergence and prosperity for a while, but it is starting to show its limits. This is the conclusion of the debates that took place during the annual conference of the Association of Financial-Banking Analysts in Romania (AAFBR) 2026, which took place at the BNR headquarters. After years in which Romania was presented as one of the «tigers» of Eastern Europe, the economy is now the third consecutive year in which optimistic estimates indicate economic growth below 1%. At the same time, the imbalances accumulated in previous years continue to produce effects. Romania constantly spent 7-9% of GDP more than it produced and spent almost 30% above the level of budget revenues, which led to a deterioration of fiscal indicators and an increase in financing costs, explained Răzvan Rusu, vice-president of AAFBR. The consequences are already visible. The Romanian state borrows at higher costs than most countries in the region, including some states that do not benefit from investment grade status. The difference with Poland is about 70 basis points, and the bill is starting to be harder to ignore: interest expenses will reach about 3% of GDP this year, a level that reflects the cost of fiscal imbalances accumulated in the past. You may also be interested: Valentin Lazea, chief economist at the BNR, explained that Romania, in order to be an economy that resembles the high income economies outside, must reach, but at the same time to maintain values of 2.5%-3% for the budget deficit, economic growth and inflation rate, to reach growth rates of 5-6% per year for salaries and 4.4.5% per year for pensions. From the perspective of Ionuţ Dumitru, Chief Economist, Raiffeisen Bank, Romania’s economy performs poorly because there are very serious structural problems, the model based on consumption, deficits, high costs, insufficient productive investments, the decrease industry, the loss of competitiveness can no longer be sustained. Florian Libocor, BRD chief economist, believes that Romania’s fundamental challenge is not necessarily the lack of growth, but the change in its structure, which will represent a foundation on which Romania’s ability to strengthen its economic position within the European economy will be built. From the point of view of Ciprian Dascălu, BCR chief economist, the economy is caught in structural problems related to demographic decline, the relatively low level of qualification of the labor force and implicitly the reduction of productivity and cyclical problems, namely rather high interest rates, the shock on raw materials and the rather depressed consumption demand in recent months.
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