After an initial wave of significant selling, the US indices started to recover around 17:00 CEST. The US500 index is now down just under 0.2%, after losing as much as 1.1% shortly after the market opened. However, the technology sector remains under pressure, with Microsoft and Amazon leading the decline. Analysts at Rothschild & Co Redburn downgraded both companies from «buy» to «neutral» and revised their price target on Microsoft shares downward, while keeping their target on Amazon at $250. The price target for Microsoft has been lowered to $500. According to them, the decision was justified by too high investments related to artificial intelligence. Shares of Home Depot are down nearly 4% today after the company cut its sales outlook for this year, again pointing to weakening demand in the U.S. economy and cautious consumer spending. Nvidia shares are also down over 1% ahead of tomorrow's results, which will be released after US trading. From macro data: revised US core durable goods orders for October rose 0.3% month-on-month (est. 0.4%, previous 0.4%). The year-on-year revision amounts to 2.9% (in line with estimates). Factory orders rose 1.4% month-on-month (est. 1.4%, previous -1.3%). The NAHB housing market index reached a value of 38 vs. expectations of 37 and previous 37. Gold is up 0.6% and continues to bounce off the 50-day EMA area. Silver adds more than 1%. Dollar index futures (USDIDX) are up slightly, EURUSD rose slightly after falling from 1.157 to 1.158. Donald Trump has announced that Saudi Arabia will invest $600 billion in the U.S. as part of a new trade deal, with Saudi officials suggesting that amount could rise to $1 trillion. At the same time, the US is considering limiting the export of advanced artificial intelligence chips to Saudi Arabia. Negotiations are also underway on a possible civilian nuclear agreement, which could also open up space for future military cooperation. Part of the invested funds is likely to support the development of AI infrastructure in the US. The price of oil is rising for the fourth session in a row and is approaching 65 USD per barrel. Henry Hub natural gas futures (NATGAS) are also up sharply, moving from $4.22 to $4.38 in the three hours between 5:00 PM and 8:00 PM CEST. Sentiment in the cryptocurrency market remains weak. Bitcoin fell as low as $90,000 today, but recovered back above $93,000 after a sharp selloff. Ethereum also erased previous losses, rising from $2,930 to around $3,150. Cocoa futures are trying to stabilize on the ICE today after the market hit a significant sell-off – cocoa prices are down almost 35% since September 1st. Donald Trump's administration has decided to lift a 10% retaliatory tariff on commodities not produced in the US, including cocoa. However, cocoa from Brazil remains subject to a high 40% tariff for national security reasons, dampening the positive impact. Ivory Coast reported that exports from October 1 to November 16 totaled 516,787 tonnes, down nearly 6% year-on-year. On the other hand, farmers from Ivory Coast and Ghana report healthy trees, rapid fruit development and ideal drying conditions. In addition, Mondelez said the number of pods is 7% higher than the five-year average. Recently, Asian processing cocoa fell 17%, the lowest third-quarter figure in nine years. In Europe, there was a decline of 4.8%, a ten-year low. An increase of 3.2% was recorded in North America, but analysts caution that this was a methodological change rather than a real growth in consumption.
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