Situation: From Western Europe, the undulating cold front is proceeding, which will arrive over Monday. Before its arrival, the influx of warm air from the south will be centered. Behind the front we get cooler and wetter air from the northwest. During the afternoon and evening, especially in the eastern half of the country will appear stronger storms. In the evening, the clouds and precipitation from the southwest will decrease. Conditions: The models quite clearly agree on the interface, which will lie just in an area that intersects Prague, Liberec and České Budějovice, here between 10 and 12 hours we will start registering the first showers and thunderstorms. These will be created in an instable environment with values that will be around 600 j/kg on the border of Bohemia and Moravia, further east during the afternoon to 1200 – 1500 j/kg. Dynamic support determining the nature of thunderstorms, their strength and ability of the organization will be more limited. Wind cut 0-6 km average around 15 m/s, in the evening slightly rising from the southwest to 18-20 m/s. Low -thorough cut around 5 to 8 m/s, in the evening perhaps in northeast Bohemia maybe Ik 10 m/s. Limited dynamic support will affect the initial development of thunderstorms, which will be rather chaotic in the afternoon will begin to organize in clusters and lines. In the evening we expect the creation of a more significant precipitation zone, which passes virtually throughout Moravia. As the dynamic support will gradually rise as the afternoon, I expect that the front of the front itself will form a more compact storm line that will advance around 19 to 20 hours to the areas of the Eastern Highlands and Central Moravia. It does not have to be a long line, but rather a few lines below each other within a more elongated precipitation zone that will stretch to Poland. In such reflections, let us expect the possibility of stronger winds of wind up to 70 km/h. Supercelly:
Supercelets can appear, but rather only as a transition phase within classic storms (multicel), perhaps only in the evening, if the wind cut actually gets 20 m/s, the chance of their occurrence will rise slightly. On the other hand, supercells (storms showing rotation) are a common part of our climate, and in a milder or short -term living form they may occur in virtually any situation in which a slightly increased lability of the environment and the middle wind cut encounters. Current in more detail: precipitation, which progress from the west over our territory will gradually weaken over Bohemia, there will be weaker rain or showers, occasionally a storm, rather in the southern parts of Bohemia or along the Ore Mountains. Then, around noon, more captivated showers and thunderstorms are approximately along the 10-15 % limit on my map. Some of the exaggerations and storms begin to move to the north of Bohemia from the south to the southwest in the form of «only starting storms», which are likely to intervene in particular Liberec, Frýdlant and northeast Bohemia. Then other goals within the Highlands will begin to appear. During the afternoon, the thunderstorms become more frequent, but still rather chaotic, nested in the rainfall zone, as individual places stronger targets. Then, in the evening with the possibility of a more compact line or several «lines» above each other, as mentioned in the previous paragraph. This applies exclusively to Moravia. During the evening and the first half of the night with the storms, they will be removed from our territory and in the Czech Republic the clouds will start to break up to partly cloudy during the night, and in the second half of the night even clear. Tuesday:
Also on Tuesday, storms can occasionally appear, but rather only in the northwest of Bohemia and especially in Saxony, in the form of medium -strong exaggerations and unique storm targets.