Bitcoin is holding around $101,500 after a rough week that pushed the price below six figures for the first time since May. The last 24 hours have been calmer, with BTC hovering between $100,000 and $103,000 as derivatives leverage reset and spot flows improved. Data on ETFs showed a turnaround after six consecutive days of redemptions. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of about $240 million on Thursday. ETFs for Ethereum added about $12.5 million, and those for Solana about $29 million. On-chain, large holders amassed around 30,000 BTC this week, equivalent to nearly $3 billion, as exchange balances continued to drop. Analysts describe the shift in sentiment from panic to repositioning.
BITCOIN FLOW ETF
Macro context and liquidity
Macroeconomic signals remain mixed. US employers announced 153,074 layoffs in October, the highest level for an October month since 2003, indicating caution on the part of companies. Continued government gridlock in the US limits visibility into data and policy. After the October rate cut, the market probability of a further move in December is around 60%, but communication remains uncertain. Easing trade tensions between the US and China, as well as the Fed's resumption of repo operations eased funding stress on the dollar this week, helping to pause cross-asset deleveraging. Weekend trading usually brings lower liquidity and wider spreads. ETF creations and redemptions are suspended, so spot market direction often depends on offshore derivatives, Asian session flows and news headlines. This can amplify moves around round levels.
Spin within the crypto market
Flows suggest a spin, not a generalized output. Desks report that funds are reducing exposure to altcoins and adding to bitcoin and ether – a pattern that may increase BTC's dominance if it persists. Ethereum is trading around $3,340, BNB around $955, and Solana around $155. About 71% of the BTC supply remains in profit, a sign that long-term holders are not giving up despite short-term weakness.
Technical levels for the weekend
The price regained the psychological $100,000 zone after a mid-week drop to $98,000. The 50-day EMA is near $100,000 and has acted as a pivot point since September 2023. The 50-week SMA is another key reference, considered by many traders as the demarcation line for trend health. Immediate support is at $100,000, then $98,000. A clear break below $98,000 risks forced selling towards the $95,000–96,000 area, where previous liquidation clusters are located. Resistance is centered between $103,000 and $105,000. A daily close above $105,000 would improve momentum and pave the way to $108,000–110,000, where the bid resurfaced earlier in the month. Funding rates are near neutral after the Oct. 10 liquidation, which wiped out about $20 billion in leveraged positions. If funding turns positive while open interest increases amid thin weekend volumes, moves may accelerate faster than expected in either direction.
Scenarios to consider
If the lull persists and the spot market leads the way, the market could continue to consolidate above $100,000, with slight corrections absorbed by whales and ETF buyers as trading resumes on Monday. This scenario would keep pressure on the $103,000–105,000 area and favor a gradual rebuilding of bullish momentum. If negative news headlines emerge or derivatives push the price below $100,000, stop orders below $98,000 can accelerate a decline in pockets of lower liquidity before buyers return. With ETF desks offline, the return may be slower unless Asian flows are favorable.
What to watch
Spot ETF flows at the reopening of US markets, exchange balances from old wallets, funding rates and open interest on major platforms, as well as possible comments from Fed officials ahead of December. A weekly close above the 50-week moving average would support the recovery scenario. A close below this would keep the focus on defense and range trading until policy visibility becomes clearer. Join our 33,000+ subscribers. No spam, just useful info.