“Naturally, as a systematic global macroeconomic investor as 2025 draws to a close, I have analyzed the mechanics of what happened, particularly in the markets. This is the subject of my reflection today. » This is how the extremely wealthy Ray Dalio begins a long analytical format published on X to take stock of the past year. The wise man of Bridgewater, Ray Galiohas just broken the skylark. For him, the story of 2025 is not that of the triumph of Wall Street, but that of the agony of the dollar. By taking a step back from the “Grand Cycle”, Dalio draws us a year 2026 where monetary truth will finally catch up with stock market euphoria.
The key points of this article:
Ray Dalio revealed the agony of the dollar in 2025, foreshadowing a monetary confrontation in 2026. He denounced the hidden devaluation of the dollar, highlighting the illusion of stock gains in the face of the rise of gold and Bitcoin.
The distorting mirror: Why your gains are losses in disguise
In his analysis, Dalio gives us a real lesson in financial physics: everything depends on the benchmark. He reminds us with biting irony that “viewing yields through the prism of a weak currency makes them appear stronger than they actually are.” Concretely, if you held American stocks in 2025, your trading application proudly displayed an increase of 18 %. On paper, you have popped the champagne. But be careful of the optical illusion! To understand the reality of your wealth, Ray Dalio changes the thermometer and uses gold, a 'hard' currency that cannot be printed by simple political decree. And here, the observation is brutal: as the price of gold has risen much faster than that of stocks, your real purchasing power has in fact dropped by 28%.
“Looking at your investment returns through the prism of a weak currency makes them appear better than they actually are. »
It's a bit like if you received an 18% salary increase, but at the same time, the price of your rent and groceries increased by 50%. You certainly have more tickets on hand, but you buy fewer things at the end of the month. In summary, the dollar is no longer a reliable unit of measurement; it's a rubber band that stretches so much that it's about to snap. Furthermore, this phenomenon of “masked devaluation” is the very driving force behind the narrative of Bitcoin (BTC). While the price of BTC is above $90,000 at the time of writing these few lines, it stands out, just like gold, as the big beneficiary of this loss of confidence. Against the Swiss franc or gold (+39%), the dollar looks more and more like a Monopoly ticket.
Capitalism on drip? The 3 causes of chaos
Furthermore, for Ray Dalio, the year 2025 was also the scene of a major political upheaval based on three inseparable pillars : First, the Trump administration has launched a massively leveraged bet on the power of capitalism. By promoting excessive deregulation and stimulating technological production (notably AI), the government has moved from the role of arbiter to that of conductor of the economy. In the crypto ecosystem, this has translated into support for mining and infrastructure, transforming Bitcoin into an issue of national sovereignty. It is the bet of managed capitalism. Second, this policy was accompanied by aggressive foreign diplomacy which ultimately scare away foreign capital. Threats of sanctions and the use of the dollar as a weapon of war have pushed international investors to turn away from American debt. As a result, the latter have massively reallocated their funds towards gold and, increasingly, towards Bitcoin, perceived as the only “neutral” and elusive asset in the face of the whims of a State. It is the fall back on theunilateralism. Finally, and most critically, these measures have widened an unprecedented wealth gap. While the richest 10% (the capitalists) saw their stock and crypto portfolios soar, the remaining 60% were literally devastated by real inflation. For the latter, “financial accessibility” is no longer an economic concept, it is a question of daily survival. It is the explosion of the social gap. In summary, these three forces (managed capitalism, fear of foreign investors and glaring inequalities) are transforming a financial crisis into a diet crisis. Dalio warns: 2026 will be the year of political awakening. Indeed, while the richest 10% capture technological added value, the remaining 60% are devastated by real inflation. When the currency falls, real goods (real estate, food, energy) become inaccessible. This social divide is a political powder keg that threatens to tip the country into internal conflict between the capitalist elite and increasingly vocal “democratic socialist” movements.
“As a result, these 10% of capitalists no longer perceive inflation as a problem, while the majority (the poorest 60%) feel burdened by it. The value of money question, also known as the affordability question, will likely be the biggest political issue next year, contributing to the Republicans' loss of the House of Representatives and a very chaotic 2027, on the way to a very interesting 2028 election where the clash between right and left promises to be major.»
Between AI bubble and bitcoin refuge: Where to hide in 2026?
Finally, if Dalio remains historically focused on physical gold, the parallel with the crypto ecosystem is now inevitable. AI has entered a bubble phase where valuations no longer take into account economic reality, whileEthereum (ETH)has 3 191is still looking for its second wind between the desire for minimalism advocated by Vitalik Buterin and the pressures of institutional staking. Dalio's observation on the debt is clear: 10 trillion dollars of US debt must be rolled over into 2026. Who will want to finance this debt if the dollar continues to sink? Foreign investors are already reducing their exposure. It is precisely here that the notion of « Hard Money » takes on its full meaning. Unlike bonds which are “paper promises”, Bitcoin is a decentralized asset which is no one’s debt. In a unilateralist world where economic sanctions are raining down, owning an asset outside the system is no longer a luxury. The question is therefore no longer whether the system will change, but what form your golden prison will take. Between the galloping inflation of the dollar and the imminent arrival of a Euro Digital ultra-centralized, the window to secure decentralized assets has never been narrower.