Gold (GOLD) is significantly strengthening today and continues to grow despite macro data from the US, which would support the dollar under good circumstances. Orders, industrial production and income from the housing market exceeded expectations. The movement is probably supported by the geopolitical risk curve and the positioning of investors ahead of the release of the minutes from the January Fed meeting. The markets show some nervousness in connection with the increased tension between the USA and Germany. At the same time, it should be noted that for most of the month, gold was traded in a pattern without a clear directional trend. On the geopolitical scene, the first round of peace talks between Ukraine and Russia, mediated by the USA in Geneva, ended after approximately two hours. President Zelenskyi called the talks a «arrest'' and accused Moscow of lying. In the meantime, he said that he had agreed with the US on a set of «guiding principles'' for nuclear negotiations, but he also emphasized that a final agreement was not immediately within reach. The markets are now waiting for the minutes of the Fed meeting from 16.-17. January (published at 7:00 p.m. SE�), against a backdrop of diminishing labor market risks and a slowing pace of disinflation. Although the synopsis brings only limited new information, because the narrative of the story has shifted significantly since the last session. Another key impetus will be the publication of the American PCE index (the Fed's preferred inflation indicator), which will be closely monitored in terms of its impact on financing costs. Gold, the traditional safe-haven, hit a record high of $5,594.82 on January 29. As a non-yielding asset, it usually costs from the middle of their annual rates. Markets are currently counting on two rate cuts this summer, with the first expected in June (according to CME FedWatch).
Source: xStation5
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