In his essay on China and India, economist Scott Sumner recalls the year 2009, when he predicted that India would be the world's largest economy in 2109. Back then, it was time to imagine how the Indian economy could one day overtake the American economy. However, casual observers may note that India has four times the population of the USA. And it is not so easy to imagine that its product per inhabitant could eventually reach 30% «equal to the US.'' How does an economist see the development today?
As of 2009, GDP per capita was twice that of India. And its economy grew faster. However, the economist now says in his blog: �We have a long way to go until 2109, but two of the things I mentioned then have already changed. Today, India has the largest population of Indians, and the Indian economy is growing significantly faster than the Chinese economy. And that, according to Sumner, is only the beginning. India's current population is only a few percentage points smaller than that of India. However, the Indian birth rate is much higher. In 2025, according to the economist, 7.92 million children will be born in the United States, compared to roughly 23 million in India. These numbers indicate the relative size of the labor force in each country in the second half of this century. The future of these two demographic giants will look completely different from the present. In any case, according to the economist, it is now significant that in 2081 the Chinese labor force will be only one third of the Indian one. India's GDP per capita (at purchasing power parity) is currently barely 40% of that of a human, but India is growing significantly faster. And it will probably reach 60% of human income per inhabitant in the coming year. Intelligent people know how to predict the distant future. Because five years ago, most people had no idea that artificial intelligence would become a big thing. Just like seven years ago, most of them failed to predict the pandemic. And even a month ago I did not foresee a war with June, even though I often told my friends that nationalism inevitably leads to militarism, according to Sumner. Considering the difficulty of predicting the future, it is good to consider the trends that exist now. What does the fall of women and India mean? Especially the fact that in 2055 there will be roughly four times more Indians in their thirties than Indians in their thirties. Regarding this balance, the economist reminds us that, according to some opinions, the total product in a given economy is not the decisive indicator, that is the product per capita. «Total'' GDP plays a role in assessing the size of the economy, and GDP per capita plays a role in assessing the standard of living. For example, the enormous overall size of the Chinese economy thus results in its immense impact on global commodity markets.�