The escalation of confrontation between the United States and Iran is pushing the conflict into an area where diplomatic options are becoming increasingly limited and the pressure for a clear victory is increasing. In this context, Washington risks entering a strategic logic in which the alternative to total success becomes the prolongation of the conflict, with increasing economic and political costs for the entire region, explains Radu Cucută, associate professor. dr, within the National School of Political and Administrative Studies. From the perspective of the evolution of the conflict, the space for compromise seems limited. «Apart from complete surrender, there are no other ways other than continuing the conflict and causing, as I said, unbearable damage to the opponent, which, mind you, I don't think are directly material. Very often, they are political,» said Radu Cucuta on ZF Live, a show produced with the support of Orange Business. In the case of the United States, domestic political vulnerability is considered limited at the moment, in the absence of any signals that Iran could significantly influence public perception in the US. «I don't think that Iran can directly affect American public opinion and, at the same time, I haven't seen any information about the attitude of the populations of the states in the region regarding Iranian behavior,» says Radu Cucută. However, the impact of the conflict begins to be felt in several ways, and economic pressure becomes one of the indirect instruments of the confrontation. «On the other hand, it is obvious that this conflict has an impact. It is obvious that the impact, including military, but especially economic, is beginning to be felt, and I think that Iran is counting on this», Radu Cucută believes. Tehran's strategy seems to be based on the idea that time can become an ally. By prolonging the conflict and by increasing the economic and security costs for the actors involved, Iran could try to force a renegotiation of regional positions. «It relies on the idea that this conflict cannot be resolved in 12 days, that Iranian sensitivities and claims must be taken into account and that, shall we say, its ability to cause problems in the region is much greater than anticipated.» In this scenario, the pressure is not directed exclusively on the United States, but also on regional partners and international actors indirectly involved in the stability of the area. «Consequently, the things they request must receive more attention from the regional stakeholders,» the analyst added. In a conflict where each side tries to maximize its strategic advantage, the duration of the confrontation and the economic costs generated could become the decisive factors, in a context where the options for a quick exit from the crisis seem increasingly limited.
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