Everything hangs by a thread. Yesterday, on the sidelines of the NATO summit held in Türkiye, Donald Trump released the word that had been missing for days: truce with Iran is “over”. A few hours later, on the night of July 8-9, US Central Command launched a second wave of strikes, this time targeting around 90 targets: missile and drone storage sites, air defense systems, command networks and installations in southern Iran, including Bushehr and islands in the Persian Gulf. Suffice to say that this time, the shock wave did not stop at the Iranian borders.
The key points of this article:
Donald Trump declared the end of the truce with Iran, leading to a wave of American strikes on strategic Iranian targets. Financial markets reacted with a rise in oil prices and a fall in US stock indices, while Bitcoin failed to play its role as a safe haven.
The Strait of Hormuz in Iran: a political and economic issue
This second salvo follows a first wave, already hit by more than 80 targets et 60 speedboats of the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) July 7in retaliation for Iranian attacks on civilian tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. As a reminder, the Strait of Hormuz is a corridor through which approximately a fifth of the world’s oil passes. It’s the narrowest point in the global energy supply chain, one that every oil trader has watched out of the corner of their eye for decades. Immediate result: Brent closed at $78.19 (+5.43%), US WTI at $73.52 (+4.37%). As reported by CBS News in its live monitoring of July 8, 2026, this second salvo comes after several already tense days, marked by the first wave of strikes on July 7 and Iranian threats of retaliation targeting US bases in Bahrain and Kuwait. Except that until then, the escalation remained military. It now directly affects the physical flow of black gold. And the markets hate that.
Wall Street is cashing in, the Nasdaq is resisting
Unsurprisingly, the American stock market plunged at the opening. THE Dow Jones ended the July 8 session down 1.09%, at 52,348.39 points. THE S&P 500 limited the breakage to -0.28%around 7,482.71 points. THE Nasdaq Compositehe finished squarely in the green: +0.2%, at 25,870.65 points. Surprising? Not so much. Tech weighs heavily in this index, and tech doesn’t care about the price of a barrel as long as the data centers are running. On the ground, the airlines paid the heaviest bill: American Airlines fell by almost 4%, United Airlines by around 2.5%, Delta, Southwest and JetBlue lost around 2% each. Logically, kerosene follows oil. Conversely, the energy sector acted as a refuge: the XLE listed fund, which brings together the oil stocks of the S&P 500, jumped by more than 2% in the pre-market. According to Bloomberg, which followed the reaction of futures contracts in real time following Trump’s announcement, investors initially sold massively before readjusting their positions sector by sector in the morning.
🇺🇸🇮🇷 Donald Trump says he is no longer sure he wants an agreement with Iran, adding he wants to “finish the job”. pic.twitter.com/N6KHZo3kKL— Journal du Coin (@LeJournalDuCoin) July 9, 2026
Bitcoin, or the illusion of the safe haven asset that is collapsing again
And meanwhile, on the crypto side? The price of bitcoin slipped below $62,000, around $61,700 to $62,900 depending on the platform, or around 2% decline over 24 hours. Nothing of a crash then. But a clear signal: as soon as the fear index (VIX) climbs on the stock markets, bitcoin follows. Not the other way around. The idea of a “digital gold” bitcoin which would decouple itself from indices in times of geopolitical tension remains, for the moment, more wishful thinking than a market reality, an observation already made last week in our analysis of American inflation expectations and bitcoin. There remains one question that will not be resolved in a day: how far will Iran go in its response? The country has already promised, in recent days, a “crushing” response against American interests in the region. If Tehran were to permanently disrupt maritime traffic in the strait, the barrel could rise well beyond current levels, with a domino effect difficult to contain on all asset classes, including bitcoin. For now, the markets are navigating by sight. And that night, everyone paid the price of uncertainty, from the oilman to the satoshi holder.