The crown begins a new week slightly below the surface of 24.30 Eurczk. Monday uninteresting from the perspective of macroeconomic statistics. During the week in the Czech Republic, the CNB Bank Board meets and the PMI indices will be published in the euro area. The end of last week was not very interesting from the perspective of macroeconomic statistics and events. In the United Kingdom of retail sales in August increased by 0.5 % m/MAO 0.7 % R/R. In Germany, PPI production inflation in August dropped by 0.5 % m/MAO 2.2 % R/R. In the US on Friday, the macroeconomic calendar was de facto empty, when the key event of the week was the US Fed (17/9). On Friday, the US dollar was doing well on Friday. The main monetary pair was traded roughly between 1.173 – 1.177 Eurusd and the dollar closed a week at similar levels on which it moved on Monday morning. In the first half of the week and specifically on Wednesday evening the dollar in response to the Fed decision briefly weakened above the level of 1.19 Eurusd, but in the second half it smeared these losses. The crown against the dollar tend to slightly weaken to the level of 20.70 USDCZK on Friday. In the Central European Region, the crown was successful on Friday, which strengthened slightly below the level of 20.30 Eurczk against the euro. Other Central European currencies tend to weaken to the euro during Friday. Hungarian forint up to the surface of 391 Eurhuf and Polish zloty above 4.26 Eurpln. The different development of regional currencies towards the euro was manifested by strengthening the koruna against the zloty below the surface of 5.70 filler, which are the strongest values of the Czech currency since June 2024.What expect today? The introduction of the week will start slowly from the point of view of statistics. Both the euro area and the US will arrive secondary data – consumer trust in the euro area, the index of national activities in the US. Even retail sales in Poland are not statistics that should make the potential to make the Central European foreign exchange market more significantly. And nothing fundamentally new to the Fed's currency policy is likely to be expected from the manifestations of American central bankers. Looking at the next days of this week, the Central Bank meetings, namely the Hungarian MNB on Tuesday (23/9) and the Czech CNB on Wednesday (24/9), will be worth looking at the next days of this week. In both cases, the central bank will almost certainly leave interest rates unchanged and do not suffer from the US Fed from last week, which reduced the main interest rate by 25 basis points and thus renewed the release cycle of currency policy. And to make no central banks, on Thursday (25/9), the Swiss SNB is sitting. In the euro area and in the USA, the September Indices of the PMI Business Moods (23/9) will be worth attention in the week, as well as the speech of Fed J. Powell. The most likely scenarios for today (written 8 o'clock in the morning) and this week. On the main monetary couple last week the dollar weakened against the euro slightly above the level of 1.19 Eurusd (the weakest value since September 2021), but in the second half of the week almost completely deleted these losses. It contributed to this both slightly hawk Fed (more here) and better numbers from the US labor market in the form of weekly applications for unemployment benefits. Stabilization of EURUSD trading in the range of about 1.165 – 1.185 at the moment the most likely scenario for this week. The koruna is slightly below the level of 24.30 EURCZK against the euro, and in the wider vicinity of this level it could move even for most of the week. Wednesday's CNB meeting is very likely to bring anything new from the perspective of the crown – interest rates without change and slightly hawk rhetoric of the CNB with an emphasis on the pro -inflationary risks in the service and higher wage growth.
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