The Bitcoin price ended the month of March beyond $ 80,000, but it still drops more than 2 %. Consequently, the king of cryptocurrencies records a second month in a row in the negative. Cryptocurrencies are going through a period of uncertainty during which investors remain very cautious. Indeed, there were only $ 230 million in entries on crypto investment products according to data from corners. While the month of April has just started, and buyers seem to defend $ 80,000, is Bitcoin in good conditions to recover? The Market Check analyzes several on-chain and technical indicators to understand the situation of the king of cryptocurrencies. Let's go!
Bitcoin is not immune to a new wave of decline
Historically, evolve under the average purchase price of short -term holders (orange curve) is not positive. Indeed, in 2022, the course blocked against the orange curve and the market evolved into bear market. But this cycle is different from the previous one, because since the beginning of 2023, the course has dropped several times clearly below the orange curvewithout causing passing in Bear Market:
Graphic representing the price made of short -term holders on Bitcoin. Source: Bitcoin Magazine Pro once again, the course of Bitcoin is found under the average purchase price of short -term holders. And once again, the operators wonder if the Bull Market is finished. Does the course go recover as in 2024or the BTC left for a long period of decline ? Difficult to know with this simple metric. On the other hand, short -term holders, who bought their BTC recently, are found with Negative positions. It will therefore not take much to panic. Besides, D. Trump must evoke the customs tariffs During the «Liberation Day» on April 2. A way to put a Massage in an already fragile sector ? While waiting to know more, the Bitcoin evolves around the mobile average over 200 days :
Different mobile averages applied to Bitcoin. Source: Checkonchain For the moment, the situation is good different from 2022because Three mobile averages are upward -oriented. Therefore, the market still has the Possibility to recover. On the other hand, if the BTC has entered a Bear Market, it could reach the 200 -week mobile average located at $ 45,000. In any case, this was what had happened in the previous three Bear Market.
Operators are in fear to start the month of April
When falling from Bitcoin under $ 80,000the crypto fear and greed index (CFGI) fell to 10either to his lower level since 2022. The fall of bitcoin under $ 80,000 therefore caused a greater fear that during the drop in bitcoin under $ 50,000 In 2024:
Graphic of the Crypto Fear and Greed indicator. Source: Glassnode in the Haussier market, the CFGI tends to evolve between the neutrality area (yellow) and the extreme euphoria area (blue). But while bitcoin remains beyond $ 80,000, the market feeling is currently in fear zone. We will have to find a positive market feeling so that investors are more inclined to Press the purchase button.
Bitcoin still in Bull Market according to Asopr
The indicator present below is theasopr (adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio) Smoothed with a mobile average over seven days. He gives an idea of the Bitcoin situation : indicator asopr greater than 1 : theoretically market in bull marketbuyers have the advantage. indicator Asopr less than 1 : the trend is fragile, Bitcoin evolves in lowering market. Since 2023, the indicator has been evolving clearly Beyond the threshold that separates the Bull Market from the Bear Market :
Asopr and Bitcoin Prize since 2020. Source: Glassnode
If Bitcoin has shown fragility by falling around 76 000 $the asopr is always beyond 1. And the horizontal line at 1 continues to serve as a support. The situation does not For the moment not like the Bear Market known in 2022. According to this indicator, the BTC is in correction, but a new increase phase is possible.
Exchanges continue to empty in BTC
When the graph is rougethis indicates that BTC come out of exchanges. Investors remove their BTC from exchanges, so they tend to be relatively confidents concerning the future evolution of the price. On the other hand, a Green pronounced period means that BTC enter the exchanges. This behavior often translates a Willingness to sell your BTCas was the case during top 2021 :
BTC movement on exchange platforms. Source: Glassnode for several months, the indicator is in the rouge. In theory, operators seek to accumulate BTC out of exchangesand it is rather behavior positive for the market. Indeed, the situation does not does not look like the tops of the previous Bull Run at all.
The MVRV Z-SCORE does not indicate an overheating period since 2021
We saw it the asopr lets you know if the market is evolving in Bull Market or Bear Market. THE MVRV Z-Score is also widely used by on-chain analysts, because it allows Identify periods of excessive or lowering excess. Indeed, when the indicator is in the zone rougethat means that the Bitcoin is overvalued. On the other hand, a Z-SCORE MVRV in the Verso areas indicates that the king of cryptos is undervalued :
MVRV Z-SCORE indicator on bitcoin. Source: Bitcoin Magazine Pro. Despite the fact that Bitcoin managed to exceed the $ 100,000 round psychological figurethe on-chain indicator has not not recorded from an overheating period Since the top of the last Bull Run. Sooner or later, the indicator could be mistaken, but he saw right in previous cycles. If Bitcoin went upwards and the indicator returned to the red zone, it would then be necessary to be very vigilant.
Key points to remember
According to certain indicators on-chain such as the ASOPR and the MVRV Z-SCORE, Bitcoin is still in a bull market, and it has not experienced bullish excess equivalent to 2021. In addition, BTCs seem to continue to leave the Exchanges, investors therefore adopt a completely different behavior with the 2017 and 2021. (CFGI) and the Bitcoin course evolves under the average purchase price of short -term holders. This means that short -term holders can panic again. In parallel, Circle filed a file with the SEC for an IPO.