We are entering the most tense political week since the presidential elections in 2025, once the PSD, the main party of the governing coalition, has announced that it will leave the government if Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan, PNL, does not resign. And he announced that he is not resigning. I don't know how the financial markets, which ensure the financing of the state budget and the financing of other projects, will treat this political crisis that leads nowhere – it will not bring economic growth overnight, it will not reduce the budget deficit, it will not increase salaries and pensions, it will not relaunch private investments, but on the contrary, it will create an even worse state in the economy and in business. I don't know what the current politicians are fighting for, the parties that ensure the government, PSD with PNL, Sorin Grindeanu with Ilie Bolojan, but I know that the results in the economy and in business are extremely bad. – Industrial production continues to decrease and there are hardly any elements to indicate a reversal of the trend. – Inflation remains under pressure with the outbreak of the war in Iran and the expansion throughout the Middle East, and the chances that we will see a drop in inflation from almost 10% to 3-4% at the end of the year, as were the forecasts, are now minimal. – If inflation does not decrease, the BNR will not reduce interest rates to lei any time soon. – Consumption decreased so much that it turned the whole economy upside down, in the conditions in which it would not have had reasons to decrease so much – minus 9% year on year – in the conditions in which the salaries were not cut in nominal value, and the staff reductions are not that many. – The labor market is perhaps at its lowest level in the last decade considering the small number of job advertisements posted by companies on eJobs, the largest online recruitment site, combined with the sustained increase in the number of CVs posted and the number of applications for an opening position. – The increase in wages is at a minimum in recent years – 3% year on year – and with inflation at 9%, we have a significant decrease in purchasing power of 6%. – Private investments took a break again, after the managers, entrepreneurs, looked around, both in Romania and in the world, and seeing what was happening, they decided to put everything on hold, both investments and new hires, not to mention salary increases. – Geopolitical tensions – the war in Iran and the Middle East, the war in Ukraine, Donald Trump's war with the whole world – are at a historic high, which makes the risk of other events increase substantially. – Geopolitical tensions have increased borrowing costs again, and Romania is now paying a higher cost, in addition to the one related to the budget deficit situation, where we still have large deficits. – The economy is in recession, and the data from the first and second quarters will confirm this situation, especially after the outbreak of the war in Iran, which by increasing the price of oil, gas, fertilizers, and all other basic things, affects the entire economy. Taking into account what is happening in the economy, we do not need a political crisis at all, especially when it leads nowhere else than to the strengthening of the sovereignist current of the opposition. Companies and people are increasingly stressed about the situation in the economy and in business, and the political crisis that is being announced will raise even more their stress, mistrust and the bad feeling of the current times. The PSD, which raised the bar on Prime Minister Bolojan, has an increasingly populist rhetoric, in an attempt to recover its electorate, which is moving towards the AUR. The proposal to list on the Stock Exchange some shares from the state companies – Hidroelectrica, Romgaz, Nuclearelectrica, Aeroportul Otopeni and CEC Bank, a bank wholly owned by the state, gave birth to a Kaufkanian populism on the part of the PSD, something indescribable, especially since during the time of the PSD most state companies were listed on the Stock Exchange. Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan will be the PSD's enemy, but he is by far the most credible character on the financial markets, where the financing of the Government and Romania is decided, where real money is put on the table, tens, hundreds and billions of lei, euros or dollars, not words, slogans and populist speeches. It is good not to forget that during the presidential elections a year ago, the BNR spent 8 billion euros in a few days to control the growth of the leu/euro exchange rate, which had come under immense pressure on the financial markets. The economic and business year 2026 will be completely compromised if we enter into this political crisis that leads nowhere, that does not ensure another political stability, on the contrary. President Nicusor Dan's obligation is not to be neutral, but to ensure political stability using all the power he has, if he wants to exercise it. If we do not have at least internal political stability in these extremely complicated geopolitical times, we will end up losing everything we have gained in recent years from an economic and business point of view.
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