The Fidelis government bond program, through which the Romanian state borrows monthly from individuals at non-taxable interest rates and more attractive than bank interest rates, has gained more and more ground in 2025, and the ever-higher level of popularity makes investors wonder not only when is the right time to buy, but also what risks are involved in selling before maturity. Lucian Isac, CEO of Estinvest, says that securities with higher interest rates will remain sought after on the secondary market, where transactions can be completed quickly, and the only major risk would be a possible increase in interest rates, a scenario considered unlikely. «Even if inflation is 9-10%, and interest rates on securities are 6-7% (blood donors benefit from a 1% bonus), from all analyzes it appears that the capital invested in securities is better remunerated than that in bank deposits. On the other hand, if the downward trend in inflation continues, next year it could be somewhere around 6%, then interest rates will also have a downward trend», explains Isac, invited to the ZF Deschiderea show of Today. The Romanian state ended 2025 with a record level of financing attracted from the population through Fidelis against the backdrop of the switch to monthly issues. In total, the subscriptions reached 21 billion lei, above the level of 2024. The funds attracted through Fidelis are used to refinance maturing debts and to cover the budget deficit, in a context where the state's financing needs remain high. «Holders of high interest forwarded securities will benefit because they will be in high demand. There are already deals on the market and that's the good part: holders of Fidelis government securities can always capitalize on them through the exchange. There is counterparty on the buy side very close to the face value – in some cases, even above,» the broker continues. Inflation influences the attractiveness of government bonds through its effect on the real yield: if inflation falls, fixed interest rates become more valuable to investors, increasing demand on the secondary market. Conversely, high inflation reduces the purchasing power of interest, which can cause securities sold before maturity to trade below par. Over time, Fidelis securities have become a constant presence in investors' portfolios, being perceived as a low-risk solution, supported by the state guarantee and with easy access to the stock market. Although after the listing, the quotations may vary depending on the economic context – especially the dynamics of inflation -, investors who keep the securities until maturity fully collect both the interest and the invested amount. The popularity of the program is also supported by the subscription mechanism, considered simple: the purchase can be made through brokers, banks or online platforms, without additional costs. The yield of government securities is directly influenced by inflation: when it decreases, real interest rates become more attractive, increasing demand on the secondary market; on the other hand, high inflation reduces purchasing power and can decrease the resale price. «The interest accumulated from the last payment of the coupon until the sale belongs to the holder, i.e. the seller. If the downward trend in interest rates continues, which we all want, then the securities bought now will be sought after (…) I have had clients who sold before maturity and there were no cases where they could not find a counterparty. Unlike other instruments through which the population can borrow the state, here it is much easier to liquidate, that is, in two working days you already have the money in account.» Launched in the summer of 2020, the Fidelis program has gradually become an important financing channel for the state, accumulating to date approximately 62 billion lei equivalent. Of this amount, almost 39 billion lei were attracted through issues in the national currency, while investments denominated in euros are close to 9 billion. The expansion of the program was also reflected in the activity of investors: at the end of 2025, the total number of orders exceeded 500,000, including both repeated subscriptions and returns of the same participants to successive issues. «The only syncopation that could occur, in the event that we see an increase in interest rates – although I do not estimate this – would be that previous issues with lower interest rates may no longer be in such great demand. Then, it would be preferable for investors to sell them at maturity than to sell them at a discount. But considering the trend, especially from the second part of this year, I do not think that interest rates will know an upward trend», adds the head of Estinvest.
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